AAVE loses bullish structure after large inflows to exchanges.
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Key Takeaways
AAVE’s price has tumbled below $230, with whale sell-offs and market weakness derailing its uptrend.
A rise in the MDIA suggests most AAVE holders aren’t trading — a sign that could hinder the recovery.
AAVE has broken below the $258 support, falling out of its rising channel and facing a further downturn.
After climbing to $300 for the first time in four months on June 10, Aave (AAVE) seems to be in trouble again. This time, it is not just about its 20% decline over the past seven days.
Large-volume holders appear to be dumping their tokens, derailing what had looked like an earlier breakout to $400. The move has stoked fears of a deeper correction.
But what does this mean for the AAVE crypto price in the short term? Let’s find out.
Binance Becomes AAVE’s Exit Ramp
Since April 8, AAVE has consistently formed higher lows, culminating in a breakout above $300. This move confirmed a solid uptrend and propelled the altcoin to its highest price since early February.
As of this writing, that is no longer the case, as AAVE’s crypto price has fallen below $230. According to CCN, apart from the broader market decline, crypto whales seem to have contributed to it.
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According to Arkham Intelligence data, one whale sent15,646 AAVE, worth over $3 million, to Binance. Shortly after, another whale sold 9,290 AAVE for approximately $2.05 million on the same exchange.
If this trend continues, AAVE’s price might find it challenging to retest $300 in the short term. Looking at it from an on-chain perspective, AAVE’s 90-day Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) has seen a notable spike, indicating that older tokens remain dormant and are not being moved or sold.
However, the spike in MDIA also reflects a lack of active trading, which may limit upward momentum for AAVE’s price in the near term.
With fewer tokens changing hands, price acceleration becomes less likely, increasing the probability of consolidation or a short-term correction.
The recent shift in exchange netflow volume further validates this short-term bearish outlook. Most of last week, netflows remained in the red, indicating reduced token transfers to exchanges and weakening sell pressure.
However, according to Glassnode data, that trend has reversed. On Sunday, June 22, 25,394 AAVE tokens were transferred to exchanges, indicating potential sell pressure is building.
If this uptick in exchange inflows continues, AAVE’s price could risk breaking below the critical $200 psychological support level, especially if buyer demand does not rise to absorb the excess supply.
AAVE Exchange Net Transfer Volume | Credit: Glassnode
AAVE Price Prediction: Recovery Path Not Here
As mentioned earlier, the AAVE crypto price traded in an ascending channel. But it has now broken below the $258.82 support, aligning with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level and lower trending of the rising channel
This breakdown indicates that sellers are dominant. Hence, AAVE is likely to fall below the 0.382 Fib level.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below neutral, indicating bullish momentum. If this trend continues, AAVE’s price might drop below $200, with a potential hit of $180.95.
Conversely, rising buying pressure from whales might invalidate this outlook. In that scenario, the token could break above the upper trendline of the ascending channel and climb toward $400.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
