Analyzing Ethereum's Price Action on its 10th Birthday | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Ethereum (ETH) celebrates its 10th birthday today.
The Ethereum price has increased by 53% in July.
Will Ethereum reach a new all-time high this cycle?
Ethereum celebrates its 10th birthday with a remarkable 53% price surge in July, its strongest monthly performance since 2021.
While ETH was left for dead earlier in the year, this rally has reignited discussions about the potential for a new all-time high.
Technical and on-chain signals suggest momentum is starting to build. Let’s examine a few charts and see what lies ahead.
Ethereum’s July Rally
Ethereum is wrapping up its best month since January 2021, posting an impressive 55% gain so far in July.
Back in 2021, ETH surged by 80% that January (green icon), kicking off a seven-month bullish streak.
This year, ETH has yet to post back-to-back monthly gains—but that could be about to change.
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If current momentum holds through the monthly close, ETH is on track to secure its highest close since November 2021, when it hit its all-time high.
Even more significantly, it would mark a breakout above the critical $3,850 horizontal resistance level, the last major barrier before retesting the previous high.
The technical setup looks just as promising.
ETH appears to be forming a bullish morning star pattern on the monthly chart (black circle), a rare and powerful three-candlestick formation.
It begins with a bearish candle, followed by a doji indicating indecision, and ends with a strong bullish candle that wipes out previous losses.
The last time Ethereum flashed this setup on the monthly timeframe, it triggered a massive rally.
Secondly, momentum indicators have generated a signal that previously led to six successive bullish monthly closes (vertical line).
More specifically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed above 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bullish cross in positive territory.
So, the long-term Ethereum price prediction is bullish, and new highs are likely.
Ethereum’s price is in wave C of the A-B-C correction (black), a five-wave upward movement.
ETH is currently in sub-wave three of this structure, with a target near $4,260. Then, the entire wave could end at $5,770.
The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the decline is at $7,326, presenting the upper limit for the Ethereum price prediction in 2025.
Comparison to Bitcoin
The Ethereum to Bitcoin price has trended downward for nearly five years, but reversed trend in April (green icon) and accelerated in July, starting calls for an altseason.
The ETH to BTC ratio broke out from the descending resistance trend line and validated it as support before going parabolic.
Despite its massive increase, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price has not reached the primary resistance levels at ₿0.044 and ₿0.053, 37% and 63% above the current price, respectively.
Like the Ethereum to USD chart, the RSI and MACD have given a signal that previously led to a 300% price increase.
The signal is created similarly, with an RSI increase above 50 and a MACD cross into positive territory.
The Ethereum to Bitcoin chart suggests there is more room to grow this cycle and that ETH will outperform BTC in 2025.
On-Chain Indicators
On-chain Ethereum indicators align with the bullish readings from the technical indicators and the price action, confirming the bullish Ethereum prediction.
One such indicator is the MVRV Pricing band, which estimates price levels where the trend can reverse by estimating extreme unrealized profit and loss levels.
Historically, Ethereum has reached a market cycle between the 2.4 (orange) and 3.2 (red) extensions of the average MVRV band.
The bands range between $5,000 and $6,500, fitting perfectly with the Fibonacci targets from the wave count.
Ethereum ETF Inflows
Perhaps the most positive piece of Ethereum news is the massive Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows in the past month.
The last two weeks saw the highest-ever inflows recorded, even surpassing those of Bitcoin (BTC) in specific days.
July was the biggest month ever when measuring crypto inflows, raising more than $11.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $7.6 billion in December 2024.
Ethereum inflows have historically been correlated with the ETH price.
While that still holds true, an extremely positive development is that inflows are at an all-time high, even though the price is not a sign of sustainable interest.
Total Ethereum ETF inflows are currently over $21 billion.
Ethereum Birthday Celebrations
On its 10th birthday, Ethereum stands on the brink of a breakout from a critical resistance, backed by bullish indicator readings and price action.
The wave count and Fibonacci level target a peak between $5,770 and $7,326, backed by on-chain indicator readings.
If the projections hold, Ethereum could soon enter price discovery.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
