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The Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Can Reach $700,000 in 15 Months, According to Arthur Hayes

Last Updated October 5, 2023 12:42 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated October 5, 2023 12:42 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Analyst Arthur Hayes thinks Bitcoin can reach $70,000 by the end of next year and $1,000,000 by 2026.
  • He cites fundamental macroeconomic reasons behind the claim.
  • Chart analysis points out this possibility but also other scenarios.

Former BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, recently shared a bold vision for Bitcoin’s future in an interview  with Tom Bilyeu. He confidently predicts that Bitcoin’s value could skyrocket to a range between $750,000 and $1 million by the year 2026. While such lofty projections may raise eyebrows, Hayes’ optimism is grounded in a compelling combination of factors.

His bullish outlook finds support in concerns about the growing U.S. government debt, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for 2024, and the potential approval of Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in major global markets. Hayes also anticipates a notable surge in significant financial indices such as NASDAQ and S&P, further bolstering his predictions for Bitcoin’s remarkable future.

Hayes’ Outlook on Bitcoin

On September 12, Arthur Hayes delivered his insights on the state of Bitcoin, expressing apprehensions about the escalating U.S. government debt and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate hikes since March 2022.

In the near future, Hayes envisions Bitcoin maintaining its current price range, offering this perspective: “My working model suggests that we will likely continue fluctuating within the $25,000 to $30,000 range throughout the remainder of this year.”

Within the broader economic context he emphasizes, several critical factors could potentially propel Bitcoin to these impressive heights.

1. Potential Monetary Crisis Ahead

Arthur Hayes envisions a potential financial crisis looming on the horizon, characterized by the discord between fluctuating interest rates and the government’s unchecked expenditures. In this scenario, Hayes speculates that Bitcoin could experience substantial appreciation, possibly reaching around $70,000 by the conclusion of 2024.

This projection is influenced by multiple factors, including the anticipated “Bitcoin halving event” scheduled for April 2024 and the monetary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve.

In his own words, Hayes explains, “As we approach a potential financial disruption and people come to realize that real interest rates remain negative, despite government growth rates of 10%, 5%, or 6%, albeit high, market participants will begin diversifying their investments. Cryptocurrency represents one of those attractive alternatives.

2. The Impact of ETFs

Hayes envisions a significant turning point on the horizon as major asset managers in the U.S., Europe, and potentially Hong Kong consider launching Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He believes that this development has the potential to breathe new life into a strong bullish phase for Bitcoin.

3. Broader Stock Market Surge

Expanding his vision beyond Bitcoin, Hayes foresees a flourishing financial landscape. He anticipates that prominent financial indices such as the NASDAQ and S&P, as well as key stocks, are poised to reach unprecedented record highs.

Biggest Boom Ever

“I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price. Pick your stock industry. […] Not just in crypto,”

Expanding on his insights, Hayes delved into the cryptocurrency policies adopted by different countries, with a particular focus on China. He emphasized that China’s paramount concern revolves around maintaining societal stability, as unregulated cryptocurrency transactions could potentially disrupt this equilibrium. Environmental considerations, especially regarding Bitcoin mining’s energy consumption, have also played a significant role in China’s stringent regulatory approach.

Furthermore, Hayes highlighted Hong Kong’s emerging significance in the cryptocurrency sphere, driven by unique political and technological dynamics.

In conclusion, despite the challenges posed by central banks and regulatory complexities, Hayes remains steadfast in his optimism regarding Bitcoin’s potential for significant growth.

Bitcoin Macro Price Analysis

Predicting whether Bitcoin can attain the levels of $750,000 or $1,000,000 by 2026 remains a venture into the realm of speculation, given the inherent unpredictability of cryptocurrency markets and the limited historical data. Reliable models for such projections are scarce.

However, what we can direct our attention to is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and the potential target of $70,000. These factors offer a more tangible focus within the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

Bitcoin could start a bull market
Bitcoin could start a bull market

According to a bullish analysis that marks the start of Bitcoin’s bull market on November 21 of the previous year, we’ve observed the completion of its initial sub-wave. If this analysis holds true, we can anticipate the development of the first corrective ABC wave, which suggests a potential downside movement toward the vicinity of $22,000, building a higher low—a crucial indicator in this context.

With this higher low potentially in play, we anticipate the emergence of wave 3, traditionally the most robust wave. For this wave, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at $48,000 stands as the most favorable price point, as per our analysis. In this optimistic scenario, it would be less likely for Bitcoin to reach the $70,000 mark by the end of the upcoming year.

New ATH to Come in Early 2025

Should wave 3 extend further and reach the previous all-time high, such an occurrence is conceivable. However, even in this scenario, it would be more plausible to anticipate a new all-time high materializing around January or February of 2025.

All previous halvings in a bull market mid point
All previous halvings in a bull market mid point

In the chart above, we’ve marked vertical lines corresponding to the dates of Bitcoin halvings. As we can glean from historical data, Bitcoin’s price typically followed an upward trajectory leading up to the halving event, followed by a more pronounced surge in momentum post-halving. This trend often culminated in the cryptocurrency achieving new all-time highs in the year that followed.

This historical pattern provides one of the reasons why we hold the perspective that the forthcoming halving, anticipated around April 16, 2024, may not necessarily result in an immediate parabolic ascent in the subsequent year.

According to historical data, the halving event frequently occurs around the midpoint of Bitcoin’s bull cycle, and there’s currently no compelling reason to anticipate a deviation from this established trend.

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

 

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