Standard Chartered Predicts BTC Could Reach $200,000 with SEC Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Key Takeaways

• Standard Chartered predicts a significant price increase for Bitcoin.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs could trigger a mainstream breakout for Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin’s strong fundamentals suggest that it is undervalued.

Banking giant Standard Chartered predicts  a significant rise in the value of Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that it could approach $200,000 by the end of next year.

This projection depends on the approval and success of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

Bitcoin To Reach $200,000 by 2025 with Spot ETF Approval

The bank’s prediction  is based on an assumption that, by the end of 2024, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs will hold between 437,000 and 1.32 million BTC. Standard Chartered estimates that this could translate into inflows between $50 to $100 billion. This suggests a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s value if these conditions are met.

Standard Chartered head of digital assets Geoff Kendrick and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper

“If ETF-related inflows materalize as we expect, we think an end-2025 level closer to USD 200,000 is possible.”

To reach Kendrick and Cooper’s forecast, Bitcoin needs to rise by around 4.3 times from its current price of around $47,000.

The Standard Chartered executive outlined a historical parallel in the gold market. They noted that the value of  gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) increased by a similar multiple of 4.3 between seven and eight years after the launch of gold ETPs in November 2004. 

They said: “We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US spot ETF approval, but we see these gains materalising over a shorter (one- to two-year) period, given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Mainstream Breakout

Kendrick and Cooper also remarked upon the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs to be a pivotal event that could significantly enhance mainstream acceptance and participation in Bitcoin. They view this as a “watershed moment,” signaling a major shift in the perception and utilization of Bitcoin as an investment asset. 

Furthermore, these banking executives highlighted that their latest Bitcoin price prediction aligns with a previous forecast they made, projecting Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. This consistency in their predictions underscores their confidence in Bitcoin’s growth potential over the next few years.

In addition to the focus on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, industry experts are also emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin’s underlying network strength. One pundit says Bitcoin’s robust “fundamentals” should also be taken into account when considering its future price trajectory.

Bitcoin’s Strong Fundamentals Amid Undervalued Market Price

Jamie Coutts, a blockchain strategist at Pragmatic Blockchain Research, recently highlighted  the robust state of Bitcoin’s fundamentals. He referenced a logarithmic graph titled “Bitcoin Network Activity” by “Bitcoin Price,” shared by the blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. This graph illustrates the current strength of Bitcoin’s network activity in comparison to its price.

Coutts pointed out the emergence of new use cases for Bitcoin, like inscriptions, as indicators of the network’s strength. He said Bitcoin’s network fundamentals appeared to be at their strongest since the 2016-2017 cycle.

Despite this, Bitcoin’s price  is still 40% below its peak, leading Coutts to label the cryptocurrency as “undervalued.” This assessment suggests the market has yet to fully reflect the intrinsic strength and potential of Bitcoin’s underlying network and technology in its current price.

Analyst Urging Caution

Mike McGlone, senior macroeconomic strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, expressed  a more cautious view. During a conversation on the Macro Monday talk show with host Scott Melker on January 8, he shared his perspective on the broader financial context affecting Bitcoin.

He suggested  that risk assets, including Bitcoin, may face a downward trend. His viewpoint highlights the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with assets like Bitcoin.

“We’ve had the hopium. We’ve rallied 50% from $30 [thousand]. We’ve rallied 3x from last year […] You don’t want to be getting overweight here. You want to be saying thank you. This is the week. If they rug pull, that’s bad. If they launch, well, the lessons have been that those haven’t been good, and is there a lot of hype and bullishness? Yeah, as much as I’ve seen in other peaks.”