Roughly 87% of Polymarket users haven't seen a single dollar of profit.
(Photo by H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images)
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Key Takeaways
Just 13.11% of Polymarket’s registered 177,897 crypto wallets have made a profit.
13,867 of those in profit (59%) have realized gains of $0 to $100
1.2% of all bettors made a profit of over $1,000
Polymarket bettors are operating at a loss, but this hasn’t deterred the crypto event-betting platform’s absurd trading volumes and an ever-growing number of new wallets.
Polymarket Bettors, Down
Despite $2.31 billion in total trading volume across 10.89 million trades, things look pretty bleak for Polymarket bettors. The latest LayerHub data shows roughly 87% of all Polymarket users have made no profit.
A majority of wallets, 103,247, have lost or made zero money. Furthermore, over 20,00 wallets have seen losses of $500 or more, with three-quarters of that figure being represented by losses exceeding $1,000.
Just 7.79% of bettors have realized meager profits of $0-$100; even fewer have seen gains between $100-$1,000. Only 1.2% of users made over $1,000 in profits.
As for betting volumes, 33.52% of wallets have posted trading volumes of $0-$100. At maximum, this represents roughly $5.9 million of Polymarket’s trading volumes.
At the very top end, 2.42% of bettors’ trading volumes exceed $50,000, which represents a gigantic $216 million in trading volumes at minimum. Perhaps indicating the absurd wealth of said bettors, only 489 wallets have balances that exceed $10,000, representing just 0.27% of wallets.
Polymarket, Up
The platform’s simple binary Yes/No betting options are a convenient and simple proposal that has proven popular amongst crypto users looking for other ways to leverage their assets.
At the beginning of 2024, just 8,542 wallets were registered on Polymarket. Since Sept. 22 alone, 45,065 new wallets have been activated on the platform.
Naturally, this has also seen trading volumes spike upward dramatically.
This climb is largely attributed to the “U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet, which has seen over $1.1 billion in volumes since launching on January 2024.
There have been some recent controversies that further propelled Polymarket into the limelight, for better or worse.
Controversy and Contention
The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently come out against event market platforms such as Polymarket as they could be an existential threat to the natural order of things.
The CFTC has argued that such markets could influence the outcomes of real-world events. This is based on the idea that big money often colludes, and event markets could promote conspiracy and corruption and potentially erode the social contract.
In recent weeks, Polymarket hasn’t done itself any favors in this regard, as many have taken issue with its now-deleted “Hezbollah” betting category. Despite the takedown, Polymarket is still offering conflict/war event contracts.
This leads to another problem, is any of this ethical?
Ethereum co-founder and defender of event markets Vitalik Buterin defended Polymarket’s right to issue such contracts, as he believes event markets are more like the “news.” Elon Musk has also gone as far as to say that they are “more accurate than polls,” which probably stirs the CFTC’s worst fears.
Regardless, Polymarket’s popularity is growing. However, if it does indeed become the arbiter of tragic self-fulfilling prophecies, enforcement actions and lawsuits could soon arrive at Polymarket’s doorstep.
Eddie is a gaming and crypto writer at CCN. Covering the often weird and wonderful world of Web3 with an adoring, but skeptical eye.
Prior to CCN, Eddie has spent the past seven years working his way through the crypto, finance, and technology industry. He began with PR and journalism with Bitcoin PR Buzz and BitcoinNews.com, eventually working his way to become a copywriter with a dozen firms, including the likes of Polkadot before returning to journalism in 2023.
Having studied Radio production and journalism at University in the UK, Eddie spent a few years making podcasts and presenting on a local London radio station as he built up his writing chops.
A lifelong skateboarder, Eddie can often be found at the skatepark or touring the streets looking for something new to try. That, or kicking back playing JRPGs on his original PSP.
