Harris Tops Trump as Crypto Bettors Drive Polymarket’s $575M Presidential Prediction

• Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” has seen $574.6 million in betting volumes.
• Kamala Harris is also the favorite to win the popular vote on Polymarket.
• Recent polls indicate that voters believe Trump would make them richer, but they trust Kamala more with the economy.

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken Republican nominee Donald Trump as the frontrunner on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket.

This shift comes after a surge in Harris’ popularity over the past week, bolstered by new polls suggesting she could edge out Trump in three crucial battleground states.

Polymarket’s Favorite

Kamala Harris has emerged as the new favorite to win the upcoming U.S. election on Polymarket , where she now holds a 52% chance of beating Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have nosedived from 70% in mid-July to just 45%.  Harris also commands a 76% lead in the popular vote category.

Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” has been rising in popularity just as the presidential race heats up. The betting pool has already attracted nearly $575 million in betting volumes across all candidates. Crypto bettors have wagered $72 million on Trump winning the election, $61 million on Harris, and $49 million on Michelle Obama.

Harris’ newfound favor comes as young voters rally behind her, believing she might be more trusted on economic matters than Trump, though the margin is narrow .

However, a survey by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business revealed that voters were split on who would better handle the economy, with many believing they’d be in better financial shape under Trump.

Prediction Market Ban?

Amidst Harris’ rise, prediction markets like Polymarket are facing increased scrutiny from regulators, particularly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

A recent proposal from the CFTC could see – certain – event market contracts effectively banned. It argues that said events contracts run the risk of promoting acts of conspiracy, such as insider trading and collusion, as well as other undesired outcomes.

In the context of politics, the CFTC believes prediction markets can affect voting results. Furthermore, by “allowing billionaires” to place bets on political candidates that they are simultaneously donating to, there is a risk that public trust in the electoral process will be further eroded.

Coinbase was particularly against the proposal, though not for its overarching message that prediction markets relate to terrorism, violence, or other illegal activities under federal or state laws. Instead, Coinbase is concerned with the use of “gaming” as one of the areas listed.

It argues the word is too broad in its definition, and therefore, the proposal itself could have unintended consequences for what Coinbase describes as a “promising area” of the future economy.

Polls vs. Prediction Markets

Arguably, a prediction market like Polymarket is just another poll. The event acts as the survey question, and the bettors’ stake is the survey response.

Surveys are typically based on random or targeted demographics with limited sample sizes. Whereas prediction markets invite anyone (within legal/regulatory limits) to participate, and generally, real-world sentiment and trends.

Surveys are also limited to being more akin to a snapshot of sentiment from a specific point in time. Prediction markets are arguably a little more accurate, as they follow the “wisdom of crowds” in real-time.

On Polymarket, it’s possible to bet on the outcomes of the election , which way the Senate will swing, which state will be won by which candidate, and whether or not JD Vance will be replaced as Republic VP.

Users can even bet on more odd events, such as the likelihood of Trump posting to X again before the election, who will raise more in political donations, and the number of debates Trump and Harris will have.

About the Author

Eddie Mitchell

Eddie has been writing news and content primarily for crypto news and industry players over the past seven years. With an eye for the bigger picture, Eddie prefers to investigate the broader implications of a story, as well as explore the weird and wonderful world of crypto. He believes blockchain has already changed the world, but observes the space overall with a skeptical and adoring eye.

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