Harris, Trump Odds Neck and Neck: What Each Presidency Could Mean for Crypto?
Latest polls show a significant shift, with Harris now leading Trump in White House race. But what their presidencies would mean for crypto? l Credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images
Key Takeaways
- Kamala Harris has gained significant ground, leading over Donald Trump in electoral polls.
- Trump is positioning himself as the most pro-crypto candidate despite previously criticizing Bitcoin.
- Trump’s crypto engagement is viewed as a strategic move to attract donations.
- On the other hand, Harris is focusing on rebuilding ties with the tech industry.
The 2024 presidential race is heating up, with recent polls and fundraising data shedding light on the dynamics between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Harris’ campaign is gaining momentum, erasing Trump’s previous cash advantage. As both candidates race to solidify their positions and navigate emerging issues like cryptocurrency, the next few months will be crucial in determining who gains the upper hand in this closely watched contest.
Latest Polling Expectations
A Marist poll released on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among independent voters, 53% to 44%, a notable shift from Trump’s previous 14% lead.
Overall, Harris edges out Trump 51% to 48%, marking a 4-point swing since the last poll . This comes as she selects Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate and secures the Democratic nomination.
Harris holds a narrow 1-point national lead, while both candidates are tied in battleground states. She benefits from advantages Biden did not, such as perceptions of her cognitive health, but Trump still leads in voter sentiment on financial improvement and immigration.
In a separate Economist/YouGov poll from Aug. 4 to 6, Harris led Trump by 2 points among registered voters, 45% to 43%, an improvement from two weeks ago when she trailed by 3 points.
An average of national polls shows Harris with a slim 0.1-point lead over Trump, and the Economist/YouGov poll included 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The Vice President’s rising approval was also evident on crypto betting platform Polymarket, where her odds of winning the upcoming election have surged to 49%, up 5% from last week. In contrast, Trump’s chances have plummeted to 49% from 70% in July.
Diversity Of Views On Crypto
Former President Donald Trump, once a critic of Bitcoin, is now positioning himself as the pro-crypto candidate. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, he declared his intention to make the U.S. a leader in cryptocurrency, promising to keep all Bitcoin held or acquired by the government if re-elected.
This marks a shift from his 2019 stance when he called cryptocurrency “highly volatile” and prone to illegal use. However, Trump has since engaged in millions of dollars in digital asset transactions.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is working to rebuild ties with the crypto industry, which has recently shifted to the Republican Party.
Unlike President Biden and key figures like Janet Yellen and Gary Gensler, who have been critical of crypto, Harris is focused on fundraising while navigating her connections to Silicon Valley. As a senator, she supported increasing funding for the U.S. Digital Service, which oversees initiatives like a dollar-backed digital currency.
Additionally, a new advocacy group, “Crypto for Harris,” plans to host a virtual town hall featuring speakers like billionaire Mark Cuban and SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci. This aims to support Harris’ campaign funding with cryptocurrencies and to counter Trump’s role in this sector.
What Can Happen Next?
Trump as President
Trump’s engagement with the crypto industry appears to be a strategic political move.
Since accepting cryptocurrency donations in May, his campaign has raised $25 million from the sector. It may receive even more following the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Trump’s public support for crypto has bolstered investor confidence, with Bitcoin’s price briefly surging to nearly $70,000 before settling around $62,000.
However, doubts linger about the practicality of Trump’s promises if he returns to the presidency.
He pledged to retain all the Bitcoin currently held or acquired by the U.S. government. Much of which has been seized from criminals. This stance raises questions about the message it sends to victims of cryptocurrency crimes.
Harris as President
As for Kamala Harris, her position on crypto remains uncertain. Some view this as an opportunity, believing she could be open to shaping her policy in favor of the industry. Mark Cuban, for example, has expressed optimism that Harris would be more receptive to business and crypto interests.
Given her progressive background and connections to the tech industry, it’s plausible that Harris might support digital assets as a tool for financial inclusion and competition.
However, Harris may also adhere closely to Biden’s existing policies, which could disappoint those in the crypto industry who hope for significant changes.
She might prioritize state-level regulations over federal ones or defer to regulators who favor a stricter approach.
Ultimately, Harris’s crypto policy could be heavily influenced by her advisors and the leaders of regulatory agencies, with any major shifts depending on changes in these key positions. While Trump’s re-election might seem more favorable for the crypto sector, Harris’s ambiguous stance has sparked cautious optimism.
Who Raised More So Far?
The Biden/Harris campaign has raised $284.1 million, while Trump’s campaign raised $217.2 million from January 2023 to June 30, 2024, per Federal Election Commission data.
Despite Trump’s $128.1 million cash advantage over Harris’s $96 million at the end of June, early July data suggests Harris erased that lead by raising $310 million, with $377 million in cash, compared to Trump’s $138 million raised and $327 million in cash.
The announcement of Tim Walz as Harris’s running mate has significantly boosted her fundraising , with $36 million raised in 24 hours. While Trump has challenged the rebranding of Biden’s campaign committee for Harris, it is unlikely to affect the election.
As of June 30, Trump’s top 10 PACs raised $255.9 million. Meanwhile, nine PACs supporting Harris had raised $164.6 million before she announced her candidacy.
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