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Bitcoin Price Could Reach $150,000 in 2025 as Bernstein Keeps Bullish on Ethereum

Last Updated April 29, 2024 12:46 PM
Teuta Franjkovic
Last Updated April 29, 2024 12:46 PM
By Teuta Franjkovic
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin ETF inflows slowdown is temporary and predict Bitcoin’s price will reach $150,000 next year.
  • The SEC might reject Ethereum ETFs, but analysts see this as an opportunity for renewed interest in Ethereum.
  • Analysts identify promising sectors like DeFi, crypto gaming, and tokenized real-world assets for future growth.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein remain unfazed by the deceleration in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, viewing it as a “short-term pause”.

They predict  Bitcoin will resume its bullish trajectory toward its $150,000 price target by the end of 2025. They also see this as a opportunity for new bullish calls.

Bitcoin ETF Temporary Dip Before Broader Adoption, Analysts Say

Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra noted  in a client update on Monday that Bitcoin ETF flows have decelerated. This took place at the same time as the halving event and the successful launch of ETFs. These contributed to BTC returns, which are up 46% so far this year.

They anticipate this slowdown in Bitcoin ETF activity won’t be a cause for concern. Instead, they see it as a temporary pause before ETFs become further integrated with private bank platforms, wealth advisors, and additional brokerage platforms.

They wrote:

“Bitcoin ETF flows have slowed down, with the ‘halving’ catalyst and successful ETF launch, pulling forward BTC returns YTD (up 46%). We don’t expect the Bitcoin ETF slowdown to be a worrying trend, but believe it is a short-term pause before ETFs become more integrated with private bank platforms, wealth advisors and even more brokerage platforms.”

Inflows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed considerably since peaking at a net daily inflow of $1.05 billion on March 12, as Bitcoin’s price approached its latest all-time high of $73,836

The analysts emphasized  that it will require time for Bitcoin to gain acceptance as a recommended portfolio allocation and for platforms to develop compliance frameworks for selling ETF products.

Nevertheless, they reaffirmed their projection of a $150,000 cycle target for Bitcoin by the conclusion of 2025. They based this on the $12 billion of net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs thus far and the robust position of major Bitcoin miners following the halving, amidst market consolidation and transaction fees stabilizing at approximately 10% of miner revenues.

SEC May Block Ethereum ETFs, Analysts Remain Bullish on ETH

The analysts noted that Bitcoin has been trading within the $62,000 to $72,000 range since late February, without showing clear momentum in either direction thus far. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $62,364  at the time of writing.

The analysts pointed out  that although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may reject spot Ethereum ETFs by the May 23 deadline due to concerns about the correlation between the spot and futures markets, such concerns would likely be challenged and disproved in court, as seen in the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF case.

Alternatively, the SEC could reject the ETFs by arguing that Ethereum is a security. However, this would create an “awkward” situation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regards Ethereum as a commodity. Moreover, considering that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) already trades Ether futures without any implications of securities, such a decision would seem inconsistent.

Chhugani and Sapra anticipate  that an SEC denial would probably result in litigation and shift the market narrative back to ether. They argue that considering Ether’s underperformance against bitcoin thus far, the risk-reward ratio appears attractive. Additionally, any outperformance by Ether would revive Layer 2 tokens like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon, which are associated with “ETH-beta” performance, according to them.

Moreover, the analysts view Ethereum staking via Lido as a high-beta opportunity, and they highlight EigenLayer’s restaking economy. They believe the potential launch of the Eigen token could further incentivize and speed crypto adoption.

Bernstein Analysts Identify Promising Crypto Sectors for Growth

The analysts outlined various crypto niches and projects with substantial growth potential beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum this cycle.

They emphasized Solana’s increasing dominance in crypto payments, evident in its significant market share in USDC stablecoin volumes. Integration with Visa, Shopify, and Stripe was cited as promising for its potential in mainstream payments.

Chhugani and Sapra identified  Uniswap, GMX, and Synthetix as top proxies for the DeFi sector. They also highlighted the Ronin blockchain, boasting 11 new games and a monthly active user base of approximately 3 million, as a representative of the crypto gaming sector.

Additionally, the analysts pointed out the expanding real-world asset market. They noted that tokenized money market funds from BlackRock and Franklin Templeton now exceed $700 million in assets under management. They also highlighted Chainlink’s data oracle and tokenization platform as a crucial component of this niche’s infrastructure.

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