Bitcoin (BTC) has always moved to its own beat – captivating investors with massive boom and bust cycles. But the few days have put Bitcoin’s volatile nature into stark relief. A day after star stock picker and CEO of Ark Invest Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin would reach $1.5 million by 2030, the crypto market plunged nearly 20%.
As CEO of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood’s ultra-bullish case relies on growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s capped supply, and network effects driving mainstream use. The investor currently has approximately 25% of her net wealth locked up in the cryptocurrency.
Wood told CNBC: “We think the probability of the bull case has increased with this SEC approval. This is a green light.”
Mere days ago, her projections reflected the optimism permeating crypto enthusiasts. But the launch of long-awaited Bitcoin ETFs in the US became a “sell the news” moment instead.
So what happened? The ETFs attracted piles of volume from institutional investors finally getting an on-ramp to crypto exposure. But speculators may have already priced the event in after months of lobbying and anticipation. Once trading kicked off, overextended traders rushed to lock in short-term profits.
Add to this funding conversions from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust fund plus selling pressure from the FTX bankruptcy. Like a perfect storm, these headwinds collided and sent Bitcoin careening below $42,000 – shedding nearly 9% on Friday before settling between $42,000 and $43,000.
Of course, crypto markets move in cycles, and crashes come with the territory. The key question is whether last week marked a temporary setback or more sustained reversal. In the near-term, the $40,000 level serves as a critical support test for bulls looking to restart Bitcoin’s uptrend.
But zooming out, the dust is still settling on whether Cathie Wood’s long-term prediction has merit. For pension funds and institutional investors, last week’s whipsaw may still prove a tempting gateway to portfolio diversification. But for speculators playing with fire, it solidifies Bitcoin’s reputation for extreme, unpredictable volatility.
Bitcoin’s all-time high was $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So, for Wood’s prediction to come true, the cryptocurrency would have to outperform its best by 2,081% over the next 6 years. This would be an unprecedented rise for the asset.