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Shelved Deals Poised for Comeback Under Donald Trump’s Relaxed Antitrust Policies, Experts Say

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Giuseppe Ciccomascolo
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Key Takeaways

  • Analysts forecast a 50% increase in global deal volume, potentially reaching $5 trillion.
  • Antitrust enforcement will ease, encouraging consolidations in healthcare, technology, and energy sectors.
  • While the U.S. could experience a resurgence in M&A, experts warned about mismatches in company valuations.

As 2025 kicked off, experts predict a strong rebound in global mergers and acquisitions, with deal volumes potentially rising by 50%.

Some highlighted factors like relaxed regulations as a key driver. However, risks such as overpaying and valuation mismatches remain, with cautious optimism for the year ahead.

M&A Predictions and Regulatory Shifts

In a lively discussion on Reuters Breakingviews, editors Jonathan Guilford, Aimee Donnellan, Neil Unmack, and Jeffrey Goldfarb explored their predictions for 2025, offering keen insights on major market shifts.

The conversation  focused on mergers and acquisitions, and Goldfarb expressed optimism about a rebound.

“I actually expected 2024 to be quite a big year because I felt like there was a lot of money that was ready to be deployed,” he said.

Despite the anticipation, the dollar volume of global M&A only increased by 10%.

However, in 2025, the dealmaking community may have a reason for more enthusiasm. In fact, analysts forecast  a 50% increase in deal volume, which could drive the total back to $5 trillion.

Experts attributed this optimism  to a combination of factors: A laxer regulatory environment under Donald Trump and the vast sums of money in private equity needed to be deployed.

According to Goldfarb, the market may reconsider some previously shelved deals due to changes in the regulatory environment:

“And I guess one of the things that we explored on the regulatory front was sort of, if you take the premise that antitrust oversight will be looser under Donald Trump, then there are some deals, maybe, that were kicking around that got sort of put on the shelf, that may be back on the table.”

An example is Getty Images’ merger with Shutterstock , a deal that might not have been possible six months ago under stricter regulations.

Tech, Healthcare and Energy To Get a Boost

Venture capital lawyer and Director of Research at think tank Italia Atlantica, Bepi Pezzulli, predicted that relaxed antitrust enforcement under a Trump administration could reinvigorate merger and acquisition activity previously stalled by regulatory concerns.

“In particular, a shift in enforcement priorities may reduce the likelihood of prolonged litigation or deal-blocking. This, in particular, may occur in sectors such as healthcare, technology, and energy. Here, consolidation has faced higher scrutiny in recent years,” Pezzulli told CCN.

“This policy environment might allow firms to revisit abandoned transactions and pursue vertical integrations or conglomerate structures previously deemed untenable,” he added.

Pezzulli also believes that early-stage dealmaking could benefit from reduced mandatory reporting thresholds, expediting approvals, and reducing associated compliance costs:

“The macroeconomic backdrop further bolsters the appeal of cross-border M&A. Currently trading at multi-decade highs, the U.S. dollar enhances American acquirers’ purchasing power in foreign markets, making overseas assets comparatively cheaper and more attractive.”

“This dynamic, combined with historically low-interest rates for U.S. firms accessing capital, creates fertile ground for both domestic and international deal flow,” he added.

According to the expert, with reduced barriers to execution and improved financial conditions, experts forecast a resurgence in deal volumes and value, signaling a potential revival of megadeals across industries.

Resurgence of Dealmaking in the U.S.

M&A expert at 9Fin Alessandro Albano said that global dealmaking slowly picked up in 2024 after almost two years of dormant activity and moved closer to the 2019 level.

“2021 was an exceptional year that won’t replicate for long. Yet a mismatch in companies’ valuations persists. And it seems buyers and sellers are struggling to narrow this spread,” Albano said.

“This is particularly the case for debt-funded buyouts and leveraged credits. A sluggish IPO market, the preferred route for PE firms to exit investments, didn’t help,” he added.

However, Albano believes that “a new deregulation and low taxation regime under the Trump presidency could pave the way for a resurgence of dealmaking in the U.S.

In fact, Trump’s nominees for top jobs at antitrust commissions may ease rules and lower dealmaking costs.

“Helped by a more favorable macro environment, sponsors’ exits might be incentivized. This means fewer dividends and back to the classic 5/7 years of the holding period,” Albano noted.

“We don’t know what tariffs will be imposed and how they will be digested by the corporate sector,” he added.

For Alessandro Albano, this narrative is not applicable in Europe, where the fiscal regime is more fragmented.

“The European Commission has just been reelected and will unlikely make a U-turn on its antitrust and investment policies,” Albano said.

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Giuseppe Ciccomascolo

Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors. Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
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