Coinbase stock surged in 2024, driven by strong growth in trading volumes. Despite recent profit declines, analysts remain bullish. | Credit: Hameem Sarwar/CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Coinbase experienced significant growth in 2024 and became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 index.
COIN stock recorded a notable increase despite the latest quarterly results disappointing analysts.
The stock dropped by 50% in the first quarter, which aligns with the weak crypto market trend.
Wall Street expects further growth for the crypto exchange’s shares.
In 2024, Coinbase’s shares climbed by 47% thanks to a renewed interest in digital assets, a growing suite of products, strategic partnerships and an expanding user base.
However, 2025 has offered a harsh reality check.
COIN has tumbled nearly 50% in the first quarter, mirroring the worst market downturn since FTX’s collapse.
Still, despite disappointing earnings and looming insider sales, analysts aren’t ready to call it quits on Coinbase just yet.
COIN Stock Added to S&P 500
Despite the downtrend since the beginning of 2025, Coinbase’s COIN stock has been added to the S&P 500 index, the most relevant New York index.
Coinbase will replace Discover Financial Services from May 19, as the latter has been acquired by Capital One Financial Corp, another S&P 500 constituent.
Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said, “It’s been a monumental few months for crypto, with the election of a pro-crypto federal government, BTC and USDC reaching new all time highs, and now the inclusion of COIN as the first and only crypto company in the S&P 500, a well-respected benchmark for the U.S. economy.”
“We are honored to be included and grateful for this recognition.”
According to Haas, this is a major milestone, not just for Coinbase, but also for the entire crypto industry.
“Joining this prestigious index reflects how far Coinbase and the industry have come and is a signal of where the world is heading,” she added.
“This milestone wouldn’t be possible without the unwavering support of our customers, partners, builders, and employees carrying this industry forward. Together, we’ve not only built through the ups and downs of the market but also proven that crypto is here to stay,” Haas said.
Coinbase Earnings Drop in Q1
Coinbase reported first-quarter earnings of $0.24 per share, a sharp drop from $4.40 a year ago. Revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $2.03 billion, but it still missed Wall Street’s expectations of $2.1 billion. Earnings per share also fell short, below the $1.93 estimate.
Transaction revenue climbed 17% to $1.26 billion, missing the $1.39 billion forecast. Consumer transaction revenue came in at $1.1 billion (vs. $1.18 billion expected), while institutional revenue reached $98.9 million, well below the $127 million projection.
Coinbase’s main figures from the first quarter. | Credit: Coinbase
Trading volumes also declined from the previous quarter: down 17% for consumers and 9% for institutions.
Subscription and services revenue rose to $698 million from $511 million a year earlier, but still missed the $702 million estimate.
For Q2, Coinbase expects subscription and services revenue between $600 million and $680 million, below analysts’ forecast of $703 million.
Acquired Deribit for $2.9 Billion
Just hours before releasing its quarterly results, Coinbase announced it had acquired Deribit, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, in a $2.9 billion cash-and-stock deal.
The acquisition briefly lifted Coinbase shares, which closed up 5.4% in regular trading. But that momentum faded after the earnings report, with the stock slipping 2.7% in after-hours trading.
In a letter to shareholders, Coinbase said the deal would make it “the premier global platform for crypto derivatives,” boosting both profitability and the durability of its trading business.
Spencer Yang, co-founder of Fractal Bitcoin and former Head of Product at Coinbase Wallet, told CCN the move is a major win.
“Deribit is the platform of choice for global traders for Bitcoin and Ethereum options.”
Yang noted the acquisition gives Coinbase a global edge in the derivatives market and suggested it could go further.
“I’d love to see Coinbase also offer Bitcoin options trading via broker-dealer on MSTR/IBIT to complement the custodial exchange Deribit acquisition, which is better for global growth,” Yang added.
COIN Sinks 50% in 2025
Coinbase shares tumbled nearly 50% in the first quarter of 2025, dragged down by a broader sell-off in U.S. equities and the crypto market. While some see the slide as a potential entry point, analysts warn the stock remains highly volatile.
The company’s fortunes still rise and fall with crypto prices and trading volumes, making earnings unpredictable. Despite substantial revenue in 2024, Coinbase remains heavily dependent on transaction fees—leaving it vulnerable to market swings.
COIN trades at a P/E ratio of 24 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.7, cheaper than many legacy exchanges. However, analysts say the stock will struggle to find steady footing without a broader revenue base.
Discounted cash flow models peg Coinbase’s fair value anywhere from $80 to $400 depending on crypto market performance—underscoring both the upside and the risk.
Cathie Wood’s Increasing Stake
Despite Coinbase’s rocky start to 2025, Cathie Wood has been increasing her bet on the crypto exchange.
Just last week, Wood’s firm snapped up over 83,000 Coinbase shares worth over $13 million, even as broader markets recoiled from renewed volatility in crypto and tech.
ARK’s trading disclosure showed nearly 55,000 of those shares were added to its flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), with the rest allocated to ARK Next Generation Internet (ARKW) and ARK Fintech Innovation (ARKF).
With the latest buys, ARK’s total Coinbase stake surpassed 3 million shares, valued at around $448.7 million — roughly 5.9% of its overall portfolio.
COIN Stock Outlook for the Next Five Years
Over the past three months, 21 Wall Street analysts have issued 12-month price targets for Coinbase Global. The average target is $300.10, with a high estimate of $475.00 and a low of $169.00.
This average implies an expected upside of approximately 70% from the current price of $177.09.
Analysts’ views on COIN. | Credit: TipRanks
Looking further ahead, the projected price for Coinbase by the end of 2025 is $732, representing a 195% year-over-year change. From today’s price to the year-end, this would signify a 146% rise.
By mid-2025, analysts expect the price to reach $539. In the first half of 2026, Coinbase may climb to $733, with a slight increase in the second half to $802. This would mark a 169% gain from its current value.
For 2030, analysts expect the price to reach $1,446 per share.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
