Key Takeaways
The price of Near Protocol (NEAR) has been trading in a descending triangle since its December peak of $8.20.
It lost around 45% of its value, measured to the lowest point, but now attempts to hold above a significant horizontal zone.
Interaction results will provide further insight into the likely outlook.
The 4-hour chart shows NEAR consolidating within a descending triangle formed after a breakout above the descending channel, bringing the price to a lower high of $8.23.
After the initial breakout runup, it reverted to test the broken resistance for support and is currently hovering above it. The key Fibonacci retracement levels, with $5.29 (0.618) acting as a critical resistance zone and $4.49 (0.786) providing immediate support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour time frame is neutral at approximately 40, signaling reduced momentum, although it is nearing oversold territory.
The corrective ABCDE wave count ended with Wave (e) bottoming near $3.50 on Nov. 4. The following rise led to a lower high of $9 compared to the one in March, which is a sign of caution.
The interaction result of this retest will determine the next dominant trend.
The 1-hour chart zooms in on Elliott Wave structures within the descending triangle, showing a likely Wave (v) completion near $8.21, followed by an extended corrective ABC pattern.
A critical support zone between $4.50 and $4.70 has held steady, forming the base of the descending triangle visible on the 4-hour chart.
The current consolidation aligns with the latter stages of a corrective Wave (E), suggesting a potential breakout.
Bullish scenarios project an upward movement toward $6.40 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), with further extensions targeting $7.10 (0.236) and ultimately $8.21.
On the downside, a failure to hold $4.49 could initiate a drop to $3.48 (1.0 Fibonacci extension), confirming bearish momentum.
RSI on this lower time frame shows bullish divergence, supporting the possibility of an upward breakout.
In summary, NEAR is positioned at a critical juncture, with descending triangle dynamics and Fibonacci levels as pivotal influences. Monitoring breakout points alongside RSI momentum will clarify the next significant move.