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Grayscale’s GBTC Conversion to ETF Caused Bitcoin’s Decline — Is the Worse Behind us?

Last Updated January 30, 2024 2:55 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated January 30, 2024 2:55 PM
By Nikola Lazic
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • Grayscale’s conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF led to outflows of $4.3 billion.
  • FTX liquidating GBTC shares also influenced the Bitcoin ETF sell-off.
  • Bitcoin has recently recovered by 14% but could make another downturn.

A report  from the Bitfinex crypto exchange has highlighted a significant sale of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust exchange-fund (ETF) shares as a key factor in Bitcoin’s price drop in January 2024.

This occurred alongside Grayscale’s conversion from a GBTC trust to an ETF, leading to a market correction. The report also noted $4.3 billion in outflows from GBTC. On the other hand, the report said, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust had substantial inflows.

Despite fewer assets, Grayscale’s fund remains the largest Bitcoin ETF. The report also mentioned FTX’s liquidation of GBTC shares and the impact of higher fees charged by Grayscale compared to its rivals. These things could, potentially, drive investors towards other ETFs. In late January, trading volume was cooling among Bitcoin ETFs. This change suggests a shift in investor strategy towards more cost-effective Bitcoin investment options.

Bitcoin has recovered by nearly 14% from its January 23 low of $38,560, reaching a high of almost $44,000 on January 30. With these things in mind, is Bitcoin’s price drop over?

BTC Price Analysis 

On January 11, Bitcoin reached a high of $49,000, its highest point since December 2021. This peak could have been the end of a long-lasting uptrend from November 21, 2022, when Bitcoin was worth around $15,000. 

daily chart
Recovery of 14% was seen but could have ended.

This could be the start of a larger correction, with BTC headed to previous resistance levels to establish support. The decline from January’s peak would, in this case, be the first sub-wave of a higher degree ABC to the downside. However, the recent recovery undermines that. 


If we see a further rise and Bitcoin’s price manages to go back above $45,000, it would be less likely this correction would start. However, some of our previous BTC analyses already projected this rise as the lower-degree correction of a downtrend.

For new bear phase to start, the price would need to drop immediately and fall below $38,000. If it makes a lower low than on January 23, it will begin a more significant downturn. That would mean that we could see Bitcoin headed towards its first support zone of $35,800. 

Disclaimers

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

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