Key Takeaways
XRP surged from $0.50 to $0.70, breaking out of a descending channel. However, a pullback below $0.65 suggests a possible continuation of sideways movement or a test of lower support levels.
Despite the rally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals overbought conditions. This raises questions about whether the breakout marks the start of a bull phase or a final fakeout before a downturn.
XRP rallied from $0.38 on July 5 to $0.66 by July 31 after forming a symmetrical pattern with a potential breakout at its peak.
This pattern suggests that a breakout above resistance was possible, but the price entered a period of sideways trading after the July high.
We saw a slightly descending channel forming, although the horizontal resistance of $0.65 was more significant. On Nov. 4, XRP fell to a lower low of $0.50 and started increasing again, coming to a high of $0.70 today, attempting to break out from this structure and begin a new uptrend.
Despite the 40% increase, measured from the Nov. 4 low to today’s high, an immediate pullback kept the price below $0.65 again. The daily chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, indicating that the price was overextended.
Was this the first sign of the coming bull phase, or was the fakeout a final attempt before we saw a decisive downturn?
After an initial surge to $0.64 between July 5 and 17, XRP experienced a sharp drop to $0.43, triggering a corrective ABC wave.
September’s failed breakout points to a second ABC wave, with a following, third one making a WXY sequence of the higher degree.
The low on Nov. 4 marked the completion of this third ABC, with the following rise potentially being the next advancement in the new bull phase. Despite the bullish price action, more sideways movement is still possible.
According to our count, the rise in July was the first sub-wave, while the sideways range is the corrective wave 2. Our current assumption is that it ended as a WXY correction. But it might get prolonged by two more waves, ending as a WXYXZ one.
This is why, to confirm the bullish outlook, we must see XRP continue its upward trajectory and reach values over $0.80.
Failure to do so could indicate that the price still faces challenges at $0.65 and doesn’t have the strength to overcome the seller’s strength.