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XRP Price Bounce Fuels Hopes of Q4 Rally — October Breakout Ahead

Published 30 September 2025
Victor Olanrewaju
Authors

Key Takeaways

  • XRP has rebounded to $2.90 after holding $2.50 support, with higher lows and a positive AO.
  • In the past two years, Q4 has been bullish for XRP, and there are signs that 2025 could be the same.
  • XRP’s NVT ratio has dropped, suggesting undervaluation as on-chain activity outpaces price.

After a week-long consolidation, XRP’s price has held firm above the critical $2.50 support. This development has boosted optimism that the altcoin could repeat its fourth-quarter 2024 rally.

At press time, XRP trades at $2.90, sitting 24.64% below its all-time high. While several resistance levels remain overhead, this analysis suggests that XRP may be gearing up to breach them.

XRP Targets Breakout After Consolidation

On the 4-hour chart, XRP’s price looks ready to break out of its descending channel. Since the breakout, the altcoin has been printing higher lows, a bullish sign that buyers are gradually gaining control and pushing back against the recent downtrend.

This structure suggests that XRP could build the base for a more substantial rally if buying pressure intensifies. A closer look at the chart reveals that indicators support this move.

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As seen on the chart, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has flipped from negative to positive. This transition indicates that buying strength is beginning to outweigh selling pressure, reinforcing the breakout from the descending channel.

With momentum improving, XRP’s price appears ready to challenge the $2.98 resistance. However, for this move to gain traction, bulls must first continue defending the $2.78 support zone.

If this level holds, confidence will likely build, creating the conditions for a more substantial rally.

Should buyers succeed, the next logical target sits at $3.14, where XRP could attempt a retest and potentially extend its advance further.

XRP price analysis
XRP/USD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

By the look of things, XRP seems eager to repeat its strong performance from Q4 last year.

History or Hype

Back then, the coin’s price soared by 240%, cementing one of its most impressive rallies in recent memory.

The year before, in 2023, XRP’s price still managed a modest 20% gain during the same quarter. However, history hasn’t always been kind —October 2024 turned out bearish, with the altcoin sliding by 16.70%.

XRP potential returns October
XRP Monthly Returns | Credit: CryptoRank

However, this time may be different. According to Glassnode, XRP’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dropped to 108.56.

The NVT ratio compares a crypto’s market capitalization to the dollar value of transactions flowing through its network.

A lower NVT ratio signals stronger network utility relative to valuation, suggesting that the asset may be undervalued compared to the level of on-chain activity.

For XRP, this decline implies that transaction volume on the network is growing faster than price, which historically has been a bullish signal.

XRP on-chain analysis
XRP NVT Ratio | Credit: Glassnode

If this trend holds, XRP’s price might extend its gains above $3 as October approaches and in Q4 as well.

XRP Price Analysis

Looking at the daily chart, XRP’s price is still trading inside a descending channel. At the moment, the altcoin’s price is climbing toward the channel’s upper trendline, signaling a possible breakout attempt.

If momentum holds, XRP could soon breach the $3.30 resistance. A successful breakout at this level may pave the way for a rally toward $3.66 before October closes.

Moreover, the bullish case could extend further if buying pressure strengthens throughout the final quarter. In that scenario, XRP’s price might rally as high as $5, mirroring its explosive runs from past cycles.

XRP price analysis
XRP/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

On the flip side, this outlook could unravel if market sentiment turns bearish. Failure to maintain momentum may drag XRP back toward $2.43, putting the bullish setup at risk.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju

Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.

With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.

He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.

In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.

At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.

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