Stellar (XLM) Slows After Steady Climb, With Uptrend Nearing Exhaustion

Key Takeaways

• XLM completed W-X-Y correction and turned bullish.
• Higher high potential targets $0.357 as final resistance.
• Price divergence may cap short-term upside.

Stellar (XLM) has broken out of a prolonged W-X-Y corrective structure and is now exhibiting a strong impulsive rally.

The current wave structure and Fibonacci confluence levels suggest the market is progressing through wave (v) of a new bullish cycle, which may be complete.

However, with momentum cooling off slightly, a measured push toward final targets is more likely than a string downturn.

XLM Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows a completed W-X-Y corrective structure that bottomed near $0.199 on April 7, in line with the 1.0 Fibonacci projection from the previous macro move.

After that, XLM initiated a five-wave impulse, with wave (5) peaking just above $0.32 (0.618 retracement) before entering a correction.

The breakout from the descending wedge pattern in April marked the return of bullish momentum, leading to the recent surge.

XLM is now trading around $0.305 and appears to stabilize after completing wave (5), or with potential for wave (5) now unfolding.

The key Fibonacci resistance level is at $0.357 (0.5 extension from the bear market), which is a realistic target for wave (v).

Support zones are found at $0.266 (0.786 retracement) and $0.319 (0.618 level), which the price has already tested and rejected.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above neutral but has pulled back from overbought levels, which supports a final move higher if momentum resumes.

Overall, XLM retains a bullish bias. The current leg is likely to be the final push of this cycle before a larger correction unfolds.

XLM Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart shows XLM in a smaller impulsive wave structure within wave (5).

Sub-waves (i) through (iv) are visible, and price appears to be completing sub-wave (iv) and initiating sub-wave (v).

This suggests a short-term breakout may follow, pushing toward the $0.357 level.

Wave (iv) retraced after interacting with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, but the momentum slowed down sooner, as indicated by the expanding triangle $0.319.

This area has already acted as a springboard for the current bounce, supporting the case that wave (iv) is complete.

If so, the next logical extension for wave (v) is $0.357–$0.360.

Volume and RSI on the 1-hour chart indicate waning momentum, with RSI failing to match the high of wave (3), suggesting minor divergence.

This implies that while wave (v) may extend slightly higher, the upside could be capped around the $0.357 zone unless new volume inflows push the rally further.

If the price does not break above $0.357, it could enter a consolidation phase or drop back to $0.319.

If that level breaks, a deeper retracement toward $0.266 may occur, and we can assume that XLM ended its higher-degree five-wave impulse at its recent high.

Failure to hold above the local ascending support could turn the outlook bearish.

The path forward depends on whether the current bounce has enough strength to take out local highs. If so, a temporary top near $0.357 becomes increasingly likely.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.357 (0.5 Fib retracement).
• Extension Resistance: $0.440 (0.236 macro Fib).
• Support (Wave iv zone): $0.319 (0.618 Fib).
• Deeper Support: $0.266 (0.786 Fib).
• Breakdown Risk Level: $0.199 (cycle low).