Bitcoin at Today’s Price in 2022—How It Would Have Changed Crypto History

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin price could have crashed by 65% if it started 2022 at around $97,000.
• However, if the spot ETFs were approved, the price might have hit six figures.
• Despite the recent downturn, analysts expect BTC to hit new highs before the year closes.

If Bitcoin’s (BTC) price were the same in 2022 as it is today, what would be the implications?

On the one hand, some would say that the market would likely experience a much more stable environment, potentially drawing in more adoption.

On the other hand, without the massive 2023 rally, others might say that investor sentiment would have shifted and forced a major setback.

While we cannot turn back the hands of time, this analysis reveals what would have happened.

Analyst Says BTC Should Have Been Higher in 2022

The discussion about Bitcoin price being the same in 2022 as it is today surfaced on Feb.10. It came up during CNBC’s SquawkBox interview with SkyBridge CEO and Bitcoin maximalist Anthony Scaramucci.

According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin, currently priced at around $97,761, should have reached this value in 2022. The entrepreneur pointed out that the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) should have occurred as early as that year.

“I think Bitcoin now is representing where prices should have been in 2022. Said differently, if you look at the November 2021 Bitcoin futures ETF approval, the spot ETF should have been approved sometime in the first quarter of 2022,” Scaramucci mentioned.

Recall that, in 2021, the SEC, led by Gary Gensler, approved the Bitcoin futures ETF. During that year, Bitcoin’s price climbed from $30,000 to $65,000.

But in 2022, Bitcoin’s price crashed from that peak and traded below $16,000.

$34,000 or $630,500?

The collapse happened due to several negative events within the ecosystem. Some of these include the bankruptcy of crypto hedge funds and lending firms, the LUNA/UST crash, and the FTX crash.

If Bitcoin was priced at $97,000 in January 2022 and the events unfolded as they did, it would have dropped by 65%, falling below $34,000. However, Scaramucci believes earlier ETF approval could have prevented this.

Since the ETF approval on Jan. 10, 2024, Bitcoin price has increased by over 150%. When taken back to the lows in 2022, the cryptocurrency’s value jumped by over 550%.

So, if Bitcoin had been $97,000 in 2022 and the US SEC had approved spot ETFs, it could have surpassed $630,500 following a similar performance. Interestingly, this forecast is higher than Scaramucci’s $500,000 prediction in 2023.

Things Were Not the Same, But the Market Cap Could Have Hit $10T

Still, the SkyBridgeCEO believes 2025 will be a good year for BTC. At the same time, 2022 was clearly different from 2025.

For example, Donald Trump, who appears to be at the forefront of pro-crypto policies, was not the US President then. Also, although Microstrategy (now Strategy) began buying Bitcoin before then, it did not own billions.

Considering these factors, BTC may have struggled to rally by 650%. While the ETF approval played a major role, it wasn’t the only factor driving Bitcoin to nearly $110,000 earlier this year.

At the same time, since the 2022 lows, Bitcoin’s dominance has risen from 38% to 60%. This signals a significant rotation of capital into the flagship cryptocurrency over other assets in the market.

As a result of this, Bitcoin’s market cap has grown from $363 billion to $1.92 trillion, a 5.3x increase. Had the market cap been at this level in 2022, it could have surpassed $10 trillion today.

Despite the upside potential BTC could have had if its current price occurred in 2022, the Open Interest (OI) that year was much higher. The OI measures speculative activity, and like demand and supply, it plays a major role in Bitcoin’s price.

While the Open Interest (OI) in March 2022 surpassed $50 billion, the highest it has reached since then is $35 billion. This gap may have prevented Bitcoin’s price from achieving a 650% rise from the lows of that year.

What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?

Some analysts expect BTC to surpass its all-time high, regardless of what could have been. For example, pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital said that the cryptocurrency might soon begin the second phase of its uptrend.

“Bitcoin has completed its 1st Price Discovery Uptrend BTC is trying to trend reverse out of its 1st Price Discovery Correction History suggests over the next few weeks. Bitcoin should be able to embark on its 2nd Price Discovery Uptrend to new highs.” The analyst wrote on X .

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, stated that while Bitcoin dominance was largely overlooked in 2022, it is now crucial to pay attention.

He believes this metric will significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s performance moving forward.