Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) Price Soars 400% yet On-Chain Activity Lags Behind

Key Takeaways

• Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL) has increased by 400% since April 9.
• The price broke out from a long-term resistance trend line.
• Does VIRTUAL have any more strength to continue increasing?

Virtuals Protocol’s price entered the crypto scene with a bang in the second half of 2024, rallying by more than 20,000% before the end of the year

2025 has been a different story. VIRTUAL dropped more than 90% in the first quarter of the year before rallying considerably in April.

After a 400% price increase, the main question is: How long will the VIRTUAL rally continue, and does on-chain data support it? Let’s examine some charts to find out.

VIRTUAL On-Chain Data Lags

The Virtual Protocol’s on-chain data lags significantly behind the price action since the start of April.

The lack of interest in VIRTUAL is evident in the massive decline in daily trading revenue for AI agents across different ecosystems.

From a peak of over $1.5 million in January, revenue fell to under $50,000 in April.

The biggest decline is in the Base Virtuals Protocol application, which had negligible revenue; it had $500,000 in January.

The only portion of the protocol that generates revenue is sentiment AI agents, which have crossed the $420,000 threshold and now autonomously interact with different platforms.

The decline is also visible in the number of AI Agents created, which grew rapidly in November and December 2024 but has halted completely this year.

Thus, the only revenue is from previously created AI Agents.

VIRTUAL Price Reaches Resistance

The daily time frame analysis shows that the VIRTUAL price broke out from a descending resistance trend line that existed since the all-time high.

VIRTUAL has increased rapidly since the breakout, reaching the $1.45 horizontal resistance area.

If the VIRTUAL price reclaims this area, it could quickly ascend to the next resistance at $280, a 100% increase from the current price.

Technical indicators do not show any visible weakness. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, it has not generated any bearish divergence.

Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is above zero and moving upward.

So, the daily time frame suggests the VIRTUAL price trend is bullish.

Local Top Close?

Despite the positive price action and indicator readings, the wave count raises concerns.

Since the all-time high, the VIRTUAL price has completed a five-wave downward movement (red).

The shape of the VIRTUAL decline indicates the long-term trend is bearish, and the ongoing increase is corrective.

So, the current five-wave upward movement (black) is likely wave A in an A-B-C correction.

Wave three has extended to 3.61 times the length of wave one, a likely spot for its termination.

Moreover, a bearish divergence is developing in the six-hour RSI (orange).

So, the VIRTUAL price could retrace toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support level at $0.97 before resuming its ascent.

VIRTUAL Could Retrace

The VIRTUAL price has increased by 400% since its April lows, breaking out from a long-term resistance.

However, on-chain activity does not corroborate this increase, showing no growth in 2025.

The wave count suggests the long-term trend is bearish, and VIRTUAL could reach a short-term top soon.