TRON (TRX) Faces Key Support Test While SEC Settlement Talks Continue

Key Takeaways

• Descending channel structure intact
• Approaching key Fibonacci support at $0.158
• Bearish continuation likely unless key resistance breaks
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TRON (TRX) traded within a descending channel following its parabolic rise in late 2024. The charts illustrate a corrective W-X-Y pattern, with price action approaching a key Fibonacci support.

A crucial support test is underway to determine whether a bullish reversal can emerge or if further downside is expected.

The technical outlook remains bearish unless TRX can break key resistance levels, while the ongoing SEC case involving founder Justin Sun adds additional uncertainty.

SEC and Justin Sun Near Settlement in Civil Fraud Case

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Tron founder Justin Sun are reportedly nearing a settlement in the civil fraud lawsuit initiated by the SEC in March 2023.

Both parties have jointly requested a stay order from the Southern District Court of New York, aiming to pause legal proceedings while they finalize a resolution.

The lawsuit alleges that Sun and his companies—Tron Foundation Limited, BitTorrent Foundation Ltd., and Rainberry Inc.—engaged in the unregistered sale of crypto asset securities, specifically Tronix (TRX) and BitTorrent (BTT), manipulated the secondary market for TRX through extensive wash trading, and paid celebrities to promote TRX and BTT without disclosing their compensation, in violation of securities laws.

This development aligns with the SEC’s recent trend of resolving crypto-related lawsuits, including dismissing cases against Coinbase, Uniswap, and Robinhood.

While specific terms of the potential settlement with Sun remain undisclosed, it may involve financial penalties.

TRX Price Analysis

The daily chart shows TRX has been locked in a corrective pattern since its peak at $0.45 on Dec. 3, forming a descending channel. The decline aligns with a W-X-Y complex correction, which has yet to be completed.

The price rejected multiple Fibonacci resistance levels, including 0.618 ($0.269), confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.

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The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, indicating that while TRX has not entered oversold territory, there is little sign of immediate buying pressure. 

Price action remains within the descending channel, suggesting that a deeper retracement below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement ($0.22) could be imminent.

The Elliott Wave count further supports the bearish structure, with wave X acting as a corrective rebound before the final decline toward wave Y.

The descending channel’s lower boundary aligns with this final leg, reinforcing the probability of a short-term decline before a potential recovery.

If TRX fails to hold above the 0.786 Fibonacci level, a move toward $0.158 becomes likely.

However, a breakout above the channel would indicate trend exhaustion and a potential bullish reversal, targeting $0.269 (0.618 Fibonacci) in the process.

TRX Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart reveals that TRX recently completed wave (b) within its corrective leg and has started its descent toward wave (c).

The rejection at the channel’s upper boundary aligns with the broader bearish structure, supporting further downside toward the next key support.

Currently trading around $0.230, TRX is completing its final leg down within the descending channel. The projected target for this corrective wave is around $0.158, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.

A potential reversal zone exists between $0.180 and $0.158, where buyers may step in.

However, a bullish scenario could emerge if TRX finds support at $0.220 (0.786 Fibonacci level) and regains upward momentum.

In this case, the first resistance to overcome would be the mid-channel zone at $0.250, followed by a break of $0.269 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement). 

A decisive push above this level would invalidate the bearish wave count and open the door for a retest of $0.303 (0.5 Fibonacci).

For now, the trend remains bearish unless key resistance levels are breached. Moving below $0.220 would likely accelerate selling pressure toward the next major support level at $0.158.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.250 (descending channel midpoint).
• Key Resistance: $0.269 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Resistance: $0.303 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $0.220 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $0.158 (1.0 Fibonacci level, final wave Y target).
• Invalidation Zone: Above $0.269, breaking bearish structure.