Tron (TRX) Breaks Key Resistance But Faces Limited Upside in Near Term

Key Takeaways

• TRX surpassed significant horizontal resistance.
• RSI signals overbought conditions, suggesting caution.
• The current move may end wave X’s corrective pattern.
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TRON (TRX) has completed a long corrective structure and is attempting to break out above a key resistance zone.

Recent price action suggests a possible end to the WXY pattern, with the asset forming a higher low and surging past its previous consolidation range.

We use Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci extensions to assess whether this rally is part of a larger bullish recovery or a temporary upward retracement within a broader downtrend.

TRX Price Analysis

TRX appears to have completed a complex W-X-Y corrective pattern after a sharp five-wave rise that peaked near $0.45 in December 2024.

The price recently broke out from a descending wedge but has been kept in a sideways range below $0.24 since February.

Since the April 7 low of $0.22, we saw a recovery of around 16%, with the price surpassing this horizontal resistance.

Currently, TRX is advancing to the upside above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows signs of overheating, having touched overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of short-term exhaustion.

A slight bearish divergence is seen as the RSI made the same highs while the price made higher ones.

While a successful breakout above $0.284 could open the door toward $0.32 and $0.37 (Fib 0.382 and 0.236), the risk of rejection from the current levels remains high.

If rejected, TRX could resume the downtrend, targeting the $0.19–$0.21 area, aligning with January’s 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and support.

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Overall, the macrostructure remains uncertain until a clean break and daily close above the $0.284 level confirm a bullish continuation.

TRX Price Prediction

The 1H chart shows TRX could form an ABC corrective pattern within wave X.

The current wave “c” appears extended and is approaching major Fib extension targets—1.272 at $0.277 and 1.618 at $0.294.

This level could mark the top of wave X before a final Z wave down begins.

The RSI is in the overbought zone, and divergence is starting to build, which aligns with a potential short-term top.

The previous resistance range around $0.245 has now flipped to support, but any drop below it may signal the beginning of wave Z down.

If wave Z plays out, TRX could fall back toward $0.21 or even $0.189—corresponding with prior lows and the 0.786 retracement level.

Conversely, if the price holds above $0.252 and breaks $0.284, the bearish structure is invalidated, and the next leg up could aim for $0.32 or higher.

Short-term upside remains possible, but overbought conditions and heavy resistance suggest caution.

Key Levels to Watch

• Major Support: $0.245 (0.618 Fib), $0.237 (0.5 Fib), $0.211 (0 Fib), $0.189 (0.786 macro support).
• Immediate Resistance: $0.263 (1 Fib), $0.277 (1.272 Fib), $0.284 (0.5 macro Fib).
• Breakout Confirmation: Daily close above $0.284.
• Invalidation Level: Break below $0.245.
• Fractal Watch Zone: $0.277–$0.294 – potential wave “c” top zone.