Toncoin recently broke out from a descending resistance trend line but has struggled to move outside its range high.

Despite its recent bullish momentum, the price must clear its long-term resistance to confirm its trend.

Let’s look at the charts and determine if this will happen.

Toncoin Price Analysis

The daily time frame chart shows that the Toncoin price has been below a descending resistance trend line since the beginning of April.

TON risked breaking down below the $2.85 horizontal support area during its descent. However, the price reclaimed the area in July after a brief decline.

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Then, TON broke out from the descending resistance trend line on July 14, accelerating its increase.

The rally culminated with a high of $3.69 on July 31, but the price failed to sustain the rally.

After creating a long upper wick (red icon), TON fell below the $3.50 horizontal resistance area, which has been the range high since April.

Additionally, momentum indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has generated bearish divergence (orange), confirming the weakness.

So, the daily chart shows that Toncoin is unlikely to break out from its range during its first try and could fall toward the range low.

Toncoin Price Prediction

The weekly chart reiterates the resistance above the current price and shows that the Toncoin trend is still bearish.

According to the wave count, the price of TON is in the fourth wave of its downward movement that started in June 2024.

Wave four has developed into a symmetrical triangle, the most common pattern for such a wave.

The chart shows that Toncoin could consolidate inside the triangle for a couple more months, but an eventual breakdown is likely.

Once that happens, the TON price could fall to $1.28, marking the end of its downward trend.

More Downside Likely

Toncoin’s initial breakout was promising, but the inability to hold above the $3.50 resistance and the bearish RSI divergence suggest that the rally may have been premature.

The price has since pulled back and could return to its range low and possibly break down.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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