Key Takeaways
The Toncoin (TON) price action has been volatile, with sharp fluctuations between support and resistance levels. TON has undergone corrective movements after reaching its all-time high of $8.25 in June.
This analysis explores whether the current recovery signals the start of a new bull phase or if further declines are expected.
TON reached an all-time high of $8.25 on June 15, an 8.7% increase from its previous peak on April 11. However, this rise appears to be part of a corrective wave, signaling a potential downward movement.
On Aug. 5, TON dropped to $4.70, matching its May 1 low, where it found support. It rebounded to $7.20 by Aug. 14 but faced resistance, leading to another decline.
After briefly bouncing off $5 on Aug. 26 and rising to $6 by Aug. 28, the price hovered around this level before dipping below $5 on Sept. 3, marking the final phase of its extended correction.
A recovery began on Sept. 6, with TON reaching $6.14 by Sept. 28, only to return to $5 support on Oct. 9.
The key question is whether this starts a bullish trend or another corrective bounce before breaking below $5.
Since Aug. 14, TON‘s hourly chart shows a five-wave downward pattern. The recovery up to Aug. 28 represents a corrective wave (wave four), with the subsequent decline completing the structure.
TON bounced back after briefly falling below $5, forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting a U-shaped bottom.
A five-wave upward pattern emerged from Sept. 6 to 14, hinting at a potential impulsive move. It was followed by a revision to $5 on Oct. 10 which could have been an ABC correction as the second sub-wave of the starting five-wave impulse to the upside.
If TON holds above $5 and bounces, it could signal the start of a bull phase with a target of $7. However, a drop below $5 would invalidate this scenario, indicating further declines below September levels.