Key Takeaways
Stellar (XLM) is showing signs of life after breaking out of a long-standing parallel channel.
With momentum picking up and a bullish wave structure forming, XLM could be gearing up for a potential 50% move.
Let’s dive into the charts and break down the key levels to watch if this rally is going to play out.
The weekly chart shows Stellar (XLM) dropped about 35% between May 12 and June 22.
This was a steep decline, but one that stayed neatly within a descending parallel channel, suggesting the move was corrective rather than a full-blown trend reversal.
XLM reversed course on June 22 after bouncing off the channel’s support line (green icon).
From there, the price formed a higher low, broke out of the channel on July 6, and surged to a local high of $0.297 just two days later.
The rally has been strong, but there’s still one major hurdle.
So far, XLM hasn’t cleared the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level (red icon).
While the price action looks impulsive, a decisive breakout above this level would help confirm the trend and open the door for further upside.

Momentum indicators add to the bullish XLM analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bullish divergences (orange).
Despite failing to close above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the XLM technical analysis is bullish.
Let’s look at the wave count to figure out the next targets.
With two valid counts, the wave count gives a bullish XLM price prediction.
While it is unclear if XLM is in wave C or wave three of a five-wave increase, both predict an incoming surge.
If the XLM price is in wave C, an increase to at least $0.358 is likely, giving it the same length as wave A.

On the other hand, if XLM is in wave three, it will increase to at least $0.438 before a correction.
This will give wave three 1.61 times the length of wave one and start a corrective wave four.
XLM’s price will increase by at least another 20% in the first scenario and 50% in the second.
The XLM price broke out from its corrective pattern and started an upward movement.
While the long-term structure of the move is unclear, an increase between 20 and 50% is likely in all scenarios.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
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