Solana (SOL) Move Toward $200 Left in the Cold as $80M Token Unlock Redraws Path

• Solana began a linear token unlock worth $80 million on May 25, releasing ~$11.82 million daily through June 1.
• Though relatively small, the gradual supply increase can still impact Solana’s price if the demand doesn’t match.
• Despite the rise in SOL price, the CMF dropped to -0.02, indicating that distribution outweighs accumulation.
• The MACD reading has turned bearish, increasing the chances of a pullback to $165.93 or $142.49 if pressure persists.

While tokens like Hyperliquid (HYPE) broke into new all-time highs over the weekend, Solana (SOL) was noticeably absent from the rally, despite being one of 2024’s strongest performers. The lull in momentum coincides with the start of a scheduled token unlock that began on May 25.

The ongoing unlock, valued at roughly $80 million and accounting for 0.09% of the circulating supply, runs through June 1.

At press time, SOL was trading at $177.71, down from earlier attempts to reclaim the $200 psychological level.

Given the pressure from the unlock and other factors, SOL may struggle to follow HYPE’s price surge anytime soon.

Solana Rally Hits the Brakes

Linear unlocks refer to the steady, scheduled release of locked tokens over a set period.

Unlike cliff unlocks, which release a large amount of tokens all at once, linear unlocks aim to smooth supply over time and reduce short-term volatility.

Still, they can weigh on price if demand doesn’t rise to match the increased supply. According to data from Tokenomist, Solana will release tokens worth $11.82 million per day while increasing supply.

From a technical point of view, the weekly timeframe shows that Solana’s price has broken out of a falling wedge, which indicates that a run to $200 could happen in the short term.

However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) suggests that Solana’s push toward $200 could be delayed. The CMF tracks accumulation and distribution, helping to spot bullish or bearish divergences.

A reading above the zero line signals strong buying pressure, while a dip below it points to growing distribution. On the SOL/USD weekly chart, the CMF has slipped to -0.02, even as Solana’s price climbed.

This divergence hints at weakening momentum. If it persists, SOL could struggle to break through the $200 mark.

SOL Price Analysis: Uptrend Holds For Now

Like the weekly analysis, the daily SOL/USD chart also shows that the altcoin might encounter resistance as it attempts to retest $200.

As seen below, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading closed in the negative zone.

Also, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) formed a bearish crossover. When the shorter EMA crosses above the longer one, the trend is bullish.

However, in this case, the 12 EMA (blue) has crossed below the 26 EMA (orange), indicating Solana’s previously bullish momentum has become weak. Due to this position, the next move for SOL could be consolidation.

If the MACD reading drops further, Solana’s price risks dropping below the support at $165.93. However, if validated, the next target for SOL could be $142.49 at the 0.236 pullback region.

On the flip side, if the EMA crossover turns bullish, consolidation or correction might not happen. Should that be the case, SOL’s price might break the resistance at $195.12.

In that scenario, the SOL’s value could surge to $218.65 near the 0.618 golden ratio. In a highly bullish case, SOL might climb to $252.15.