Key Takeaways
The price of Solana (SOL) is facing a potential turning point as its price chart signals a looming death cross—a technical pattern in which the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.
This formation typically indicates a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. This raises concerns among investors about SOL’s 11-month upward streak. With market uncertainty building, many are wondering whether this could lead to a significant price drop for Solana in the near future.
After an uptrend led to a breakout above descending resistance on July 20, a retracement was expected as a potential confirmation of a bullish trend, provided it bounced off the broken resistance. However, failure to hold this level indicated that SOL’s corrective structure from mid-March wasn’t complete, leading to further downside. The decrease resulted in SOL reverting to its horizontal support above $120.
The structure from mid-March is still counted as its corrective stage, after which we can see further uptrend continuation, but its looming death cross jeopardizes this outlook. As the descending flat triangle formed, the seller’s pressure increased with each strive, but the buyers held the same level.
Although SOL appears to be holding above this support for now, the seller’s pressure could eventually fill in all orders around $120, resulting in a breakdown below it. Should this happen, a price drop lower would look highly likely.
There are a couple of possibilities for Solana’s price moving forward. However, counting the waves from its March 19 peak of $210, none are bullish. The most likely one is on the chart below, and this whole structure is counted as the WXY correction with one more downside move before it is fully completed.
The two consecutive recoveries in May and July likely form an ABC pattern of a lower degree count, the wave X of a higher degree. If this is true, the descending move from Aug. 24 is the continuation of the following ABC pattern to the downside, out of which its C wave is developing.
This scenario will be significantly confirmed once the price goes below $120, as it has been supported numerous times. Should this play out, SOL’s next likely target would be $100, but an even more significant area would be $80. Measuring from its current level would be a 22% depreciation or a 40% decline.
We will soon receive validation as the price is downward. There is still a small chance it will remain above $125, and the death cross will not be formed.