- SOL forms bullish cup-and-handle, nearing breakout confirmation.
- The CMF turned positive as it shrugged off the CFTC exclusion.
- Solana could break out above $174, but it depends on some key levels.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) decision to recognize only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and USDC as acceptable collateral might have sidelined Solana (SOL) on paper.
But the price action tells a different story. Despite missing the regulatory nod that many expected, Solana’s price bounced.
In fact, several indicators now show that the recovery is not yet over. Here is why.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, Solana’s price has formed a well-defined cup and handle pattern.
The “cup” reflects a rounded bottom created after a period of consolidation, showing that sellers gradually lost control as buyers accumulated at lower levels.
The “handle” forms as a minor pullback or consolidation near the right side of the cup.
This phase typically represents traders taking profit or waiting for stronger confirmation before re-entering.
In Solana’s case, the handle has developed cleanly and is now pressing against the neckline, the structure’s critical breakout level.
As shown below, SOL seems ready to break above both the neckline and the resistance line.
A breakout, especially one backed by substantial volume, would validate the cup-and-handle pattern and confirm that bulls are regaining momentum.
If successful, this formation could drive SOL’s price toward the next resistance point at $152.99. However, this will only happen if the support at $123.35 holds.

By the look of things, support is likely to hold.
This is because the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has risen above the zero signal line, indicating that buyers are regaining control to drive Solana’s price higher.
Interestingly, this comes two days after the CFTC decided to exclude SOL from the list of assets eligible for use as collateral.
On Dec. 8, Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham announced that the regulator will recognize only BTC, ETH, and USDC as approved collateral assets, aligning with the GENIUS Act passed earlier this year.
“Today, I am launching a U.S. digital assets pilot program for tokenized collateral, including bitcoin and ether, in our derivatives markets that establishes clear guardrails to protect customer assets and provides enhanced CFTC monitoring and reporting,” Pham disclosed.
Looking at the daily chart, Solana’s price is now flirting with the upper trendline of its descending channel.
The structure shows growing strength, and SOL appears ready to challenge the key resistance at $144.16.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in negative territory but has printed a green histogram bar.
Adding to this bullish outlook, Solana has climbed above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
This move signals the beginning of a short-term trend shift and reinforces the possibility of a breakout.
If this momentum holds, SOL could breach $155.80, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
A confirmed breakout above this Fib level would set the stage for a push toward $174.49, with a potential extension toward $180 if buyers maintain pressure.

However, if bears step in and neutralize the growing bullish dominance, this scenario may fail to materialize.
In that case, Solana could retreat toward $112, revisiting a support zone as sellers regain control.