Key Takeaways
After completing a five-wave Elliott Wave structure, NEO has recently experienced a significant corrective move.
The price is currently at a crucial decision point, with Fibonacci retracements and wave counts providing insight into potential reversals or continued downside. The analysis combines a 4-hour and 1-hour chart to assess the broader trend and short-term price movements.
The 4-hour chart of NEO outlines a complete five-wave Elliott Wave sequence, peaking at approximately $26 before a sharp corrective decline. This correction took the form of an ABC pattern.
Wave A initiated the drop, Wave B presented a short-lived relief bounce, and Wave C completed the structure near $8.47, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level.
This means that the correction returned the price to its uptrend starting point.
NEO has now found support at this major Fibonacci zone, bouncing from a local low and showing early signs of potential recovery as it spiked 34% up.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart dipped into oversold territory before a recovery, suggesting the selling pressure may have temporarily subsided.
A key structural resistance exists at $11.81, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent correction. A break above this level would confirm a short-term bullish reversal. Additionally, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $15.17 remains the primary target for any sustained rally.
However, failure to break these resistance levels could result in further downside, potentially revisiting the $8.47 low.
Analyzing the 1-hour chart, NEO appears to be forming a potential new five-wave impulse structure following its corrective bottom.
The current structure suggests that Wave (i) has already developed to a high of $11.80, followed by a small descending channel within Wave (ii), which could be a bullish corrective phase before an impulsive breakout.
If NEO manages to break out from this consolidation, Wave (iii) could push prices toward $14, where the next horizontal resistance is. A brief pullback into Wave (iv) may follow, before Wave (v) extends towards the key resistance zone at $15.17 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend).
Conversely, if the current structure fails and NEO breaks below $9.00, the bullish scenario will be invalidated, leading to a potential retest of the $8.47 low or even further downside continuation.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart suggests a slight bullish divergence, reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term recovery if buyers step in at this stage.