LUNA Price Surges 250% Ahead of Do Kwon’s Sentencing — Is a Major Breakout Coming?

Do Kwon is set to be sentenced today, marking a significant moment in one of the crypto industry’s biggest scandals, the Terra (LUNA) collapse.

Yet in a surprising twist, the LUNA price has surged 250 percent in just two weeks, right before the verdict.

With traders suddenly pouring back into LUNA, many are asking the same question: Is this rally a speculation-driven spike, or the start of a breakout from LUNA’s three-year downtrend?

Here’s what the charts reveal.

Do Kwon Sentencing

The sentencing of Do Kwon for the Terra (LUNA) collapse in May 2022 is today.

The Department of Justice is seeking a 12-year prison sentence following his guilty plea.

The verdict in Do Kwon’s case drops tomorrow.

Judge Paul Engelmayer has asked both the prosecution and defense to clarify the exact charges tied to South Korea’s request.

Kwon already pleaded guilty in August to two criminal counts: wire fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud over… pic.twitter.com/ETKV8FrJ1D

— wincy.eth (@gusik4ever) December 10, 2025

As of right now, the Polymarket odds are as follows:

• 5-7 years: 10%
• 7-9 years: 30%
• 9-12 years: 60%

Interestingly, the LUNA price has surged before the sentencing, possibly as the spotlight returns to LUNA.

LUNA Price Analysis

The LUNA price crashed by 99.99% in May 2022, in the event that led to the sentencing of Do Kwon.

While the price bounced afterward, it has trended downward since the week of the crash.

Terra has consistently created lower highs for more than three years.

The saving grace for the LUNA price movement is that the decline is contained within a descending parallel channel.

These channels usually contain corrective movements.

With a 250% price increase over the last two weeks, the LUNA price has nearly reached the channel’s resistance trendline.

If LUNA moves above the channel’s resistance, the breakout from a three-year structure could lead to a significant rally.

Will LUNA Break Out?

A closer look at momentum indicators suggests a potential breakout.

• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has generated a bullish divergence (indicated by the orange line).
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50.

While these readings are not a surefire confirmation of the breakout, they suggest that one is likely to occur.

If so, the LUNA price could quickly surge by 200%, reaching the $0.66 resistance area.

On the other hand, a rejection from the channel’s resistance trend line will dash the bull’s hopes.

If that happens, the price could fall to the channel’s support trend line at $0.040.

Do Kwon’s sentencing could act as a volatility trigger, but this technical breakout will determine the long-term trend.

What Happens After Do Kwon’s Sentencing?

LUNA’s 250 percent surge right before Do Kwon’s sentencing has put the token back in the spotlight, but the technical setup is far more critical than the courtroom drama.

If LUNA finally breaks out of its three-year descending channel, the price could accelerate sharply; however, a rejection would erase gains just as quickly.

With momentum indicators flipping bullish and the crypto community watching closely, this may be LUNA’s most critical moment since the 2022 collapse.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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