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Kimchi Premium Falls to Discount Levels in Q4: What It Means

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Giuseppe Ciccomascolo
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Key Takeaways
  • The Kimchi Premium is a price disparity where Bitcoin is more expensive on South Korean exchanges compared to global markets.
  • The premium can fluctuate with market trends, widening during bullish periods and narrowing during bearish ones.
  • It’s in a discount area now, and here’s what it means.

Market conditions often lead to fascinating phenomena that can capture the attention of investors and analysts alike.

One such phenomenon is the Kimchi Premium, which highlights the price disparity when cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, command higher prices on South Korean exchanges than their global counterparts.

This situation reflects not just local demand and supply dynamics  but also the broader regulatory landscape and investor sentiment in South Korea.

What’s Kimchi Premium

The Kimchi Premium refers to a price disparity in which cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are more expensive on South Korean exchanges than in other countries.

Named after kimchi, a popular Korean dish, this premium reflects unique demand and market conditions in South Korea.

Several factors drive the Kimchi Premium. South Korea has a notably high demand for cryptocurrencies among retail investors, yet the supply remains limited due to local regulations that restrict international crypto exchanges from fully operating there. As a result, higher demand and limited supply inflate prices on South Korean platforms.

Kimchi Premium Discount modes
When Kimchi is in Premium or Discount mode. | Credit: CryptoQuant 

Additionally, South Korea’s strict capital controls make it difficult for traders to buy Bitcoin abroad at lower prices and sell it domestically at higher ones, limiting arbitrage opportunities that would otherwise help equalize the prices.

Different regulatory frameworks also play a role; South Korea’s relatively isolated market structure allows these disparities.

This phenomenon impacts the market by creating potential arbitrage opportunities, though barriers to moving capital in and out of the country make them difficult to exploit. The premium also tends to fluctuate with market trends. During bullish periods, it often widens as South Korean demand for cryptocurrencies rises, while in bearish periods, it may narrow as demand cools down.

Why It’s Trending

Despite a broader market upturn, Bitcoin’s value in South Korea has declined relative to global prices, creating a so-called “reverse Kimchi Premium.” This phenomenon, where domestic prices are lower than international rates, departs from the typical Kimchi Premium that has long characterized Korea’s cryptocurrency market.

Analysts attribute this reversal to a combination of factors, including subdued investor sentiment in Korea and increased demand for virtual assets on foreign exchanges.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election and China’s stimulus measures have fueled a surge in global trading volumes, pushing Bitcoin prices higher.

Kimchi Discount
Kimchi is currently in a Discount area. | Credit: CryptoQuant 

Domestically, the market has been hampered by several challenges. Restrictions on foreign and institutional investors and the ongoing transition to the Virtual Asset User Protection Act have contributed to declining retail investor activity.

Additionally, the Korean market’s limited altcoin listings and restrictions on market-making have made it challenging to maintain liquidity.

These factors have resulted in price discrepancies between Korean and foreign exchanges. While some investors may benefit from these disparities in the short term, analysts warn that they can ultimately undermine market efficiency and stability.

What To Expect

However, the reverse Kimchi Premium is not expected to persist indefinitely. As the global bull market continues and regulatory hurdles are addressed, analysts anticipate a return to the traditional Kimchi Premium.

Bitcoin has witnessed a resurgence in retail demand and a price increase, suggesting a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency in the fourth quarter of 2024. Following subdued retail activity, recent data indicates a 13% surge in retail on-chain transactions over the past month. This coincides with a 7% rise in Bitcoin’s price, from $63,100 to over $67,300.

The recent Iranian offensive against Israel has also contributed to a renewed risk-on sentiment in the digital asset market. In fact, it led to a recovery in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While institutional investors maintained high transaction volumes during diminished retail activity, the return of small investors to trading signals a shift towards lower risk aversion.

However, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections could introduce volatility to Bitcoin prices. Crypto analysts and trading firms suggest a Democratic sweep could hinder a significant price rally in Q4 2024. Conversely, anything other than a Democratic sweep could propel Bitcoin to $80,000, according to some analysts.

Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a new cycle-high of 58.9%. While this is positive for Bitcoin’s future price, it could negatively impact the performance of altcoins. Another surge in dominance could lead to a new all-time high for Bitcoin but muted returns for other digital assets.

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