Key Takeaways
After enduring a lengthy bear market, Internet Computer (ICP) has shown significant price fluctuations in recent months, sparking bullish and bearish predictions.
This analysis breaks down key price movements and potential future scenarios for the token.
After a prolonged bear market, ICP price hit a low of $2.70 on September 18 last year. However, it started a new bullish cycle in December.
By March 28, ICP surged to $21, its highest level since April 2022. According to wave structure analysis, this peak likely marked the conclusion of the first uptrend in a broader bullish cycle.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicated overbought conditions, supporting the notion that this was a temporary peak.
As expected, the price reversed, entering an extended decline. By July 5, ICP found support at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of $6.58.
After a recovery to $11, this level was retested several times, with the most recent retest occurring on Sept. 6.
A new uptrend followed, with ICP gaining over 45% by Sept. 28, reaching a high of $10. After it did, it fell by 25% to a low of $7.50 at first on Oct. 3 and started trading sideways since.
This range could either consolidate before further downside or establish a higher support plateau before another runup.
Zooming into the hourly chart, the sub-wave count suggests that ICP has undergone an ABC upward correction since July 5.
The initial recovery represents the A wave, and the recently formed ascending triangle could indicate the C wave, signaling the end of this correction phase.
If this interpretation holds, an imminent downturn is likely, with ICP resuming its higher-degree downtrend from its yearly high. In this bearish scenario, the price could revisit levels lower than July, targeting around $2.80.
On the other hand, if ICP rebounds from the current ascending support and breaks above the ascending resistance, a bullish outlook may emerge.
In this case, the July recovery would represent the first wave in a five-wave impulse, with the subsequent retracement until Aug. 5 forming the second sub-wave.
In this alternative scenario, the ascending triangle would be the initial sub-wave in a higher-degree five-wave pattern.
Whichever way the breakout from the ascending triangle unfolds will offer more clarity on the dominant trend ahead.