Dogecoin (DOGE) Jumps 40% in October but Faces Overbought Signals at $0.15 Resistance

Key Takeaways

• DOGE reached a yearly high of $0.22 in March.
• Price faced resistance at $0.13 and $0.15 levels.
• Possible correction to $0.11 amid overbought conditions on the daily chart.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen significant price movements in 2024, with sharp corrections and potential for further downturns after hitting resistance.

A deep dive into its technical analysis reveals three possible scenarios for the upcoming price action, all of which point to a downturn.

Dogecoin Price Analysis

On March 28, DOGE reached a yearly high of $0.22, completing a five-wave pattern that began in October 2023.

After peaking, the price entered a correction phase, forming a descending triangle. DOGE retraced to the 0.768 Fibonacci level at $0.090 during this decline, aligning with key horizontal support.

After bouncing from this level, DOGE hit descending resistance on Sept. 14, leading to a temporary rejection.

Despite the setback, the overall outlook remained optimistic as DOGE formed a higher low during the retracement.

A new upward movement began on Sept. 16, breaking above descending resistance and reaching a high of $0.13 on Sept. 28.

However, this was short-lived, as a 24% downturn quickly followed, erasing previous gains and casting doubt on the bullish outlook.

The correction appeared to follow an ABCDE structure, with the upward movement from Sept.6 marking the start of a five-wave impulse.

This scenario was invalidated when DOGE dropped below $0.10 on Oct. 3. While a subsequent 14% rally seemed promising, the later decline shifted the outlook to bearish.

However, after DOGE returned to horizontal resistance and found support, it made another upward strive, reaching a high of $0.15, increasing by 40% since the start of the month.

As the daily chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests, it entered an overbought zone and might proceed to make a downturn. 

DOGE Price Prediction

A close look at the hourly chart reveals DOGE is in an ascending channel. Today, the whole resistance level was reached for the third time.

Although the five-wave impulse count has certain problems, there is a chance the ascending channel concluded the first sub-wave of the starting bull phase. 

Either way, a descending move would now be expected as the price reached its higher high at significant resistance, and the daily chart showed that it had been overbought.

This descending move could be a correction, leading to a 0.5 Fib level at $0.11.

On the other hand, it could be a downtrend continuation, as the ascending channel’s structure was corrective.

In that case, DOGE could see lower values than in August. And finally, in the third scenario, we could see only a slight pullback before further upside movement. 

This is why the expected downturn’s momentum and depth will provide further insight into the following likely scenario.

However, as presented on the chart, the most optimal scenario would be another retest of its support level after a high momentum move to the upside.