When Will Ethereum's Market Cycle End? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Block Subsidy Model points to a $7,000 Ethereum (ETH) cycle high.
MVRV pricing bands suggest a slightly lower $6,000 peak this cycle
Both models show diminishing returns in Ethereum’s current cycle.
Ethereum’s price cycles can often be explained through on-chain models that measure valuation extremes.
The Block Subsidy Model and the MVRV Pricing Bands are two of the most reliable tools.
This article will analyze them to determine an Ethereum prediction for the rest of 2025.
Block Subsidy Model
The Block Subsidy Model examines the value of an asset by comparing its price to the cost of producing its supply, also known as the thermocap.
The model tracks multiples of the thermocap to illustrate how far the market price exceeds the cost of production.
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In previous Ethereum cycles, market bottoms (black circles) typically formed around twice the thermocap, while cycle peaks (red circles) climbed between 32 and 64 times higher.
This cycle has been different. The low in July 2022 was about four times the thermocap (green line), and since then, the price has not even touched the 16-times thermocap level (yellow line).
If the pattern of diminishing returns in the past two cycles continues, and the wave count transpires as expected, the cycle will end at 8 times the thermocap, rather than hitting the 16 or 32 multiplier.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
