Key Takeaways
Ethereum (ETH) has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle since its low in August, indicating a period of indecision and lower volatility.
This pattern suggests that ETH is building momentum, with the price coiling tightly before an anticipated breakout.
Given the current bullish indicators, Ethereum is likely gearing up to start a new rally, with an upward move expected once the triangle resolves.
Ethereum‘s bullish cycle began in June 2022, rebounding from under $1,000 to $2,000 by August. It established its first higher low at $1,180 in November, setting the foundation for a larger five-wave pattern.
The subsequent uptrend propelled ETH to just above $4,000 by mid-March 2024, marking a substantial 265% increase.
After this peak, Ethereum entered a bearish phase, dropping 48% to a low of $2,150 on Sept. 6, potentially concluding its fourth corrective wave within the broader five-wave structure.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator implies that this low may have ended the correction, aligning with conditions in past macro reversals.
If this holds, Ethereum is entering its fifth and final wave, potentially revisiting or surpassing its all-time high of $4,800. From Aug. 5, when it fell to its significant horizontal zone, we saw the price consolidating, forming a symmetrical triangle.
Considering the context, it could be interpreted as a bullish sign with a rally incoming after the consolidation ends.
Zooming into the hourly chart, ETH’s rise after retesting the $2,175 horizontal support is a positive sign.
Additionally, the higher low seen on Sept. 6 compared to Oct. 3 suggests a strengthening trend, as a higher low was made. Yet its Sept. 27 high was lower, forming a symmetrical triangle.
Currently, the price is around $2,500 and on an upward trajectory. More upside is expected, but the descending resistance could stop the rise by around $2,620.
Analyzing the wave structure, the triangle could be an ABCDE correction with one lower high and a higher low before completing.
Whether or not we will see further sideways movement, ETH is gearing up for a significant rally, with its first target set at $3,500.
However, according to our macro count, this could only be the first sub-wave of the sustained bull phase that can lead ETH to a new ATH.