Key Takeaways
- Ethereum’s (ETH) on-chain indicators are unlike those of previous cycles.
- The RPLR indicator suggests Ethereum’s market cycle has ended.
- Can the NUPL indicator fall below an important bullish threshold?
Ethereum’s performance this cycle has been extremely disappointing since the second-largest cryptocurrency has not reached an all-time high yet. On Feb. 3, 2025, the price nearly broke its 2024 low after it suffered a flash crash to $2,125.
Ethereum’s on-chain indicators do not paint a rosier picture. Rather, they are showing signals historically associated with market cycle tops.
Let’s dive deeper into these indicators and see what lies ahead for Ethereum in 2025.
Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio
The Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio (RPLR) is an on-chain indicator that focuses on long-term investor behavior and compares it to an asset’s fair value.
It does this by measuring the Liveliness and Realized Price ratio. The former measures holding and spending by dividing coin days destroyed by coin days created. The latter is the price of an asset based on the last time it was transacted.
The RPLR indicator moves higher when holding occurs since more coin days are created, and liveliness moves toward zero. The opposite happens when more selling occurs.
Historically, the ETH price crossed the indicator at the beginning of the bull run (black circle) and fell below it a maximum of once before resuming its ascent. In the current cycle, the ETH price crossed above it in January and fell below it in July 2024.
After moving above it again, the ETH price was expected to increase parabolically to new highs. However, this did not happen and ETH has crossed below the indicator’s trend line again (red circle).
Thus, if previous history is followed, this indicator suggests Ethereum’s bull run has ended.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
The NUPL indicator measures the difference between the Relative Unrealized Profits and Losses. Historically, values above 0.7 have led to market cycle tops. While this happened in 2021, it has not occurred in the current market cycle.
Nevertheless, a pattern has stood in both previous bull markets. Once the NUPL indicator crosses above 0.5 into green territory, it usually falls below it again.
Then, it reaches its market cycle top, which is combined with a bearish divergence (red) in the NUPL.
Then, the second cross below 0.5 (red circle) confirms that the bear market has started.
These signs have happened in Ethereum’s current cycle, indicating that the bear market has begun.
Ethereum’s Market Cycle Over
Even though Ethereum has not reached a new all-time high in the current market cycle, the RPLR and NUPL indicators suggest it is already over.
Once the Ethereum price fell, the on-chain indicators failed to maintain their bullish thresholds, which previously marked the beginning of the bear market.
Analyzing Ethereum’s Market Cycle With Block Subsidy and Mayer Multiple Models
