Key Takeaways
The Total Value Locked (TVL) of the Ethereum-based synthetic dollar protocol project Ethena (ENA) is racing toward $6 billion. This development comes after the project confirmed that it had secured a new $100 million fund to build another stablecoin.
Despite the TVL surge, ENA failed to rally. Instead, the token dropped to $0.40, bringing its year-to-date (YTD) loss to 60%.
This divergence between ENA’s price and the rising capital Ethena attracts appears to be a cause for concern.
In this analysis, CCN uncovers the key factors preventing ENA from aligning with Ethena’s surging fundamentals—and why the token’s price may continue to lag despite the protocol’s growing adoption.
In November 2024, Ethena’s TVL was less than $3 billion. However, as of this writing, DeFiLlama data reveals that it is only inches from hitting $6 billion.
TVL represents the total value of assets locked in a protocol. A higher TVL indicates strong investor interest and confidence in the yield a protocol can offer. Conversely, a decrease indicates that market participants have lost trust in the project involved.
However, Ethena’s TVL surge was not random. While other protocols saw declines, the project maintained its position, driven by increased funding.
According to a Feb. 24 report from Bloomberg , Ethena has secured $100 million in funding to develop a token similar to USDe. USDe is Ethena’s synthetic dollar, whose market cap has exceeded $6 billion in record time.
Interestingly, this development aligns with Ethena’s 2025 goal s, as revealed by founder Guy Young in January.
In the blog post, they shared that the project plans to launch a similar token specifically designed for regulated financial institutions.
While Ethena strives to increase adoption, ENA’s price has become a shadow of its previous run of $1.52, which has also affected its holders.
Based on Santiment’s data, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short difference had dropped to 50%. In January, this same metric was near 140%.
The MVRV Long/Short difference checks whether short-term holders have more unrealized profits than their long-term counterparts.
When it rises, it indicates that long-term holders have more gains, which is a bullish sign. Thus, this decline indicates that short-term holders hold more profits.
If this reading declines, ENA’s price might continue to fall, indicating a bearish sign.
Meanwhile, on the 4-hour chart, ENA’s price is likely to erase some of its losses. According to the image below, the altcoin’s fall from $0.82 to $0.40 has led to the formation of a falling wedge.
A falling wedge is a pattern formed by two descending trend lines—one for lower highs and the other for lower lows. As long as buying pressure increases, this pattern indicates a possible bullish reversal.
If this trend continues, ENA might breach the overhead resistance at $0.50. Once validated, this could lead to a breakout toward $0.60 at the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
In a highly bullish scenario, the token could climb as high as $0.76.
Alternatively, if the price drops below the $0.37 underlying support, this rally might not happen. Instead, ENA could close to its all-time low.