Polkadot (DOT) Gains 21% From Recent Low — Recovery Points to Bullish Phase

Key Takeaways

• Breakout from a falling wedge signals trend reversal.
• Wave (v) formation suggests near-term pullback before continuation.
• Major resistance at $5.19 could define the next trend.
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Polkadot (DOT) recently broke out of a prolonged corrective structure, showing early signs of bullish recovery.

The higher time frame (4-hour chart) reveals a falling wedge breakout, which typically signals trend reversals.

Meanwhile, the lower time frame (1-hour chart) suggests an ongoing five-wave impulse structure, indicating further bullish potential.

Key Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave analysis will help determine the next significant price movement.

DOT Price Analysis

DOT has been in a prolonged downtrend since reaching a high of $11, forming a clear ABCDE correction within a descending wedge.

The final wave (e) appears to have bottomed out at around $3.60, close to the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level, meaning that the price reverted nearly 100% on March 11.

The breakout from this wedge suggests a potential reversal, with the price now targeting higher Fibonacci retracement levels.

The first significant resistance lies at $5.19, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend.

If DOT breaks through this level with strong volume, it could confirm a larger bullish reversal, targeting $6.45 (0.618 Fibonacci level) as the next major upside zone.

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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is recovering from oversold territory, suggesting renewed buying interest.

However, a failure to hold above $4.00 – $4.10 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the latest move) could lead to another corrective leg before sustained upward momentum.

DOT Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, DOT is currently within an Elliott Wave five-wave impulse structure. The price has already completed waves (i) through (iv), with wave (v) targeting the $4.57 – $4.60 range.

This area coincides with a local resistance zone, making it a critical monitoring level.

We see the rising wedge formation, which could be interpreted as a leading diagonal in a new bullish structure.

A corrective (a)-(b)-(c) retracement is expected after the completion of wave (v), likely bringing DOT back toward $4.00 – $4.12, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

If the price successfully holds above this zone, it would confirm the bullish trend and raise the next leg.

Following this correction, a breakout above $4.60 could trigger a strong rally toward $5.19, where the 0.786 Fibonacci level from the 4-hour chart aligns with prior structural resistance. If bullish momentum sustains, a broader move toward $6.45 could be in play.

However, failure to hold the $4.00 – $4.10 support could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to a deeper correction back to $3.85 – $3.58, which remains a critical long-term support area.

If DOT successfully holds support and breaks above $5.19, the structure confirms a sustained reversal, with the next significant upside target at $6.45.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $4.57 – $4.60 (local structure resistance).
• Major Resistance: $5.19 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $4.12 – $4.00 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $3.85 – $3.58 (descending wedge breakout level).
• Breakout Target: Above $5.19, aiming for $6.45 (0.618 macro Fibonacci retracement).