DOGE’s breakout and supply crunch may be just the beginning | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Share
Key Takeaways
DOGE’s stock-to-flow ratio surged to an all-time high, a historically bullish signal.
The MVRV ratio shows that DOGE’s price has not hit the historical cycle peaks.
Technical indicators support further upside, with a potential target ranging from $0.25.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) stock-to-flow ratio has rallied to a new all-time high following the memecoin’s recent breakout. For months, Dogecoin’s price remained suppressed below elevated levels, with some analysts predicting it could prolong its bearish phase.
However, it does not seem like that will happen. Today, DOGE’s supply squeeze has hit escape velocity, with signs that the crypto’s price might eventually rise much higher. Here is why.
Dogecoin Sees Supply Shock
About two weeks ago, Dogecoin’s price dipped below its critical $0.15 support. But fast-forward to today, and the memecoin has made a strong comeback, surging to $0.20.
While the price rebound alone is impressive, it’s not the full story.
The real headline lies in Dogecoin’s stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, which has skyrocketed from 30.00 earlier this week to an all-time high of 70.91.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
For context, the S2F ratio measures scarcity by comparing an asset’s supply to the rate at which new units are produced. A higher ratio typically signals increasing scarcity and is associated with long-term price appreciation.
So why does this matter for DOGE? This spike in S2F indicates a temporary decline in DOGE issuance or a surge in holding behavior, both of which reduce the available supply on the market.
When scarcity rises and demand holds steady or increases, it creates the conditions for further price gains. Essentially, fewer coins are flowing into circulation at this time. If sustained, this could give rise to a higher DOGE price in the coming weeks.
Further on-chain analysis backs this bullish outlook. CCN tapped into Glassnode’s data to analyze the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — a key metric that pinpoints market tops and bottoms by gauging unrealized profits and losses.
Currently, Dogecoin’s MVRV ratio sits at 1.29. However, it doesn’t hit a market peak until the ratio climbs between 2.26 and 3.75. This signals that Dogecoin still has room to run before this cycle reaches its top.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows that Dogecoin’s price has broken out of a descending triangle. Amid this movement, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has risen to 72.42, indicating that buying pressure has outweighed distribution.
In addition, the green line of the Supertrend is positioned below DOGE. This indicates strong support for the coin.
Alternatively, this trend might change if the number of DOGE flowing into exchanges increases. If that were to happen, Dogecoin’s price might decline toward $0.14.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
