DOGE is flirting with breakdown below triangle support | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Dogecoin has dropped 22% in 30 days and is close to a breakdown from its multi-month consolidation.
Low volatility and declining momentum suggest DOGE is unlikely to retest resistance unless bulls return.
However, a break above triangle resistance could trigger a rally toward $0.24, near the 0.382 Fib level.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) 22% drop within the past 30 days has pulled it down to test the lower edge of a symmetrical triangle. At press time, Dogecoin’s price trades at $0.17.
However, looking at several indicators warns that memecoin risks brushing below the channel’s lower boundary. If validated, DOGE could fall into bear market territory.
But will this be the case or not? Let’s find out.
Dogecoin Risks Another Drop
On the daily chart, DOGE’s price has traded in a symmetrical triangle since Jan. 23. This triangle consists of two converging trendlines of equal slopes.
The upper trendline represents resistance, while the lower one indicates support. Dogecoin’s price will drop below the support line in the image below.
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Amid this technical setup, CCN examined the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to measure the momentum around the memecoin. As seen below, the MACD has slipped into negative territory.
The decline in the MACD reading indicates growing bearish momentum. Reinforcing this outlook is the position of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
Specifically, the 26 EMA (orange) has crossed above the 12 EMA (blue), confirming a bearish crossover and could accelerate DOGE’s downward trend.
We examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short Difference from an on-chain perspective. This metric compares the unrealized profits of long-term holders to those of short-term holders.
A positive reading suggests long-term holders are profitable, which would have been a bullish sign for Dogecoin’s price action.
However, the current reading is -24.10%, indicating short-term holders have more unrealized gains.
If this trend persists, it could limit DOGE’s ability to break above key resistance levels, particularly the psychological zones at $0.20 and $0.25.
Looking at the daily chart, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum mentioned earlier.
Additionally, the red segment of the Supertrend indicator sits above Dogecoin’s price — a signal of overhead resistance. Typically, when the green line is below the price, it signals support, but the opposite scenario indicates rising sell pressure.
If this bearish setup holds, DOGE could decline toward $0.13, marking a 25% drop from its current value. In a more extreme case, the price may fall as low as $0.10.
On the contrary, if buying pressure returns and DOGE breaks above the triangle’s upper trendline, the price could rally to $0.24, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
