Dogecoin has broken above a descending parallel channel, with the price up 2.27% on the day, and bulls targeting a Q1 close above $0.10.
The Exchange-held DOGE supply has dropped by 440 million tokens since March 20, signaling that accumulation is beginning to outpace distribution ahead of the breakout.
Short-Term Holder NUPL sits in capitulation territory, hinting at the entry of “diamond hands.”
Leading meme coin Dogecoin has broken above the descending parallel channel that has kept its price low since March 16.
DOGE is currently trading at $0.097, up 2.27% on the day, after breaching the upper boundary of this bearish channel.
With on-chain metrics and technical indicators beginning to align in favor of a sustained recovery, the meme coin could be on its way to ending Q1 2026 at multi-week highs.
Exchange Balance Drawdown Points to Accumulation
The dip in DOGE’s total exchange balance over the past few days is a notable bullish signal.
According to Glassnode data, the meme coin exchange-held supply reached a 30-day high of 21 billion DOGE on March 20. Since then, however, exchange balances have dropped sharply, falling to 20.56 billion DOGE by March 24.
The 440 million DOGE withdrawn from exchanges in less than a week signals a gradual shift in holder behavior toward bullishness. Generally, coins moving off exchanges indicate accumulation rather than short-term selling intent.
This drawdown of DOGE’s exchange supply, which predates the price break above the channel, adds weight to the bullish case. It shows that accumulation is beginning to outpace distribution among market participants.
STH NUPL Points to Capitulation Bottom
According to DOGE’s Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) metric, capitulation is underway among this cohort of investors, and this may support the ongoing bullish reversal.
At press time, the metric, tracked on a 7-day moving average, sits at -0.49, indicating that the average short-term holder is carrying significant unrealized losses on their DOGE position.
STHs are investors who have held their assets for less than 155 days. When an asset’s STH-NUPL drops below zero, it signals that a majority of these recent buyers are now underwater relative to their acquisition price.
At -0.49, DOGE is approaching the deeper end of the capitulation range.
However, historically, STH capitulation often marks the point at which “weak hands” exhaust their selling pressure and exit the market.
This makes room for higher-conviction participants, who are more likely to provide the demand floor that supports the upward price trend, to take on more positions.
Price Holds Above Key Moving Average
On the technical side, DOGE’s daily price is holding above its 20-day exponential moving average, which now forms a dynamic support floor at $0.094.
The 20-day EMA tracks an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving recent prices greater weight.
When a token’s price climbs above its 20-day EMA, it signals a shift toward bullish momentum.
A sustained close above this moving average could push DOGE past the immediate resistance at $0.098 and toward the $0.10 level as the first quarter of the year nears its end.
However, a close below the breakout line could pull DOGE toward the lower channel line at $0.094.
Failure to defend this zone could trigger a deeper dip to $0.08
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
