Key Takeaways
Binance’s native token, BNB, has experienced significant fluctuations since its March peak, forming key patterns that hint at potential future trends.
As the price approaches a pivotal point, bullish and bearish scenarios remain in play, but the breakout direction will determine the primary one.
After reaching a peak of $640 on March 16, BNB’s price started forming an ascending triangle. This pattern hinted that BNB was consolidating and potentially preparing to continue its uptrend, which started in October of the previous year.
According to Elliott Wave Theory, this movement could represent the fourth wave in a five-wave sequence.
BNB briefly hit a new yearly high of $721 in early June but quickly retraced to the ascending support at $610 before breaking below it on June 17.
The subsequent downtrend followed a three-wave structure, leading to a low of $400 on Aug. 5. After finding support, it entered a recovery period, forming another ascending triangle with its horizontal resistance around $600.
This leaves two possible scenarios. First, BNB may have completed its five-wave impulse on June 6 and is now in a major correction.
Second, the June 6 spike, despite reaching a new high, may have been part of a sideways movement that began in March.
In this case, the low on Aug. 5 could mark the end of this pattern, signaling a potential for an uninterrupted rise toward a new all-time high above $800.
As the price approaches the apex of its latest ascending triangle, a breakout direction will provide further clues about the primary scenario.
However, considering BNB’s inability to surpass $600 recently and decisively from March, a more significant drop could be anticipated.
In either scenario, BNB most likely found its bottom on Aug. 5, as indicated by wave analysis.
The following recovery could either be a corrective wave or the start of a new impulsive move toward a fresh all-time high.
An ascending flat triangle’s horizontal resistance is within reach, awaiting another interaction. Analyzing the wave structure inside it, we can see no signs of a five-wave pattern, suggesting a breakout to the upside.
It could still be a bullish pattern, with BNB headed to a new all-time high after it first drops. But in the short term, a target of $450 looks highly likely. From Aug. 5, we are counting the rise as an ABC, with its last downtrend from the $616 high on Sept. 27 being the first sub-wave to the downside.
This makes its current uptrend the first corrective wave in this downward sequence, which is why analysts expect an immediate downturn.
In this case, BNB shouldn’t exceed its prior high; if it does, the count will be invalidated.
Overall, the price is highly indecisive, and at this time, the best course of action would be to wait and see its breakout direction.
Once BNB leaves its current ascending flat triangle, a clearer outlook will be presented.