The BNB price has fallen since its all-time high of $793.86 in December 2024. While the price briefly stopped its decline on Feb. 3 and bounced, it could not sustain the rally and has fallen again.
Today, the BNB price risks a breakdown from a long-term ascending parallel channel. Doing so will confirm that the bear market has started. Let’s examine the charts and see how likely this is.
The weekly time frame BNB chart shows that the price has fallen by nearly 30% since its all-time high of $793.86 in December 2024. On top of the price decline, the downward movement is important for two more reasons:
Firstly, it confirmed the $680 area as resistance, creating a deviation above it (black circle).
Secondly, it is causing a breakdown from an ascending parallel channel that has existed since March 2024.
A breakdown from this channel will confirm that the long-term trend is bearish, taking the BNB price to $440.
Technical indicators support this bearish BNB prediction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) generated bearish divergences (orange) before the decline.
Then, the RSI declined below 50 while the MACD made a bearish cross. So, the weekly time frame is decisively bearish, predicting a crash to $440.
The decline in BNB activity metrics mirrors this bearish outlook. The BNB chain enjoyed a resurgence after a memecoin frenzy inspired by co-founder Changpeng Zhao’s dog reveal.
Since then, token trading volume, fees, and revenue have fallen precipitously. So has the Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume, suggesting the increase was a one-off event rather than a sign of sustainable growth.
What’s Next for BNB?
The wave count is also bearish, aligning with the price action and indicator readings. The most likely count suggests BNB has completed a five-wave upward movement that started in June 2022 and ended with an all-time high in December 2024.
If so, the price has started an A-B-C correction that will retrace the entire movement. Based on the length of the previous increase, the correction can continue until June 2026.
A breakdown from the channel will confirm that wave A has started. A likely target for the bottom of wave A is at $440, coinciding with a long-term horizontal support area.
Then, the BNB price can begin to wave B toward $660, creating a lower high before another decline. Then, wave C can end at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level at $312. While the exact values for the highs and lows can become clearer, this can be a general outline of the future movement.
Alternatively, closing above $660 will mean the BNB price is still in a bullish trend. This currently seems unlikely.
Bullish Trend Over
The BNB price has fallen since its all-time high and has likely completed its bullish cycle.
A breakdown from the ascending parallel channel will confirm this, taking the BNB price to $440. This could mark the end of the correction’s first portion.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
