Bitcoin’s Price Teeters on the Brink: Will $61,000 Prove to be the Tipping Point?

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is facing strong resistance.
• Struggle to break higher highs signals a potential bearish reversal.
• Critical support levels may determine the next major move.

After a promising start, Bitcoin’s upward momentum has stalled, leaving investors wondering if the cryptocurrency can overcome the critical $61,000 barrier.

With the price struggling to achieve a higher high, the bullish outlook that once seemed certain is now in jeopardy.

In this analysis, we’ll delve into two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movement: a bullish resurgence driven by a recent recovery and a bearish downturn if the current rally proves to be a mere correction.

Using Elliott Wave Theory, we’ll examine the potential future price levels and key support or resistance points that will determine Bitcoin’s price fate.

BTC Price Analysis 

Bullish Scenario

Since Aug. 5, Bitcoin‘s price has steadily climbed, reaching a peak of $62,400.

After this high, BTC’s price experienced a slight pullback, representing a minor wave 4 in a developing five-wave uptrend or the start of a new downtrend following a three-wave ABC correction to the upside.

On Aug. 16, Bitcoin’s price approached a critical pivot point that would ultimately determine the fate of its bullish trend

With the price hovering around $57,600, investors held their breath as the cryptocurrency teetered on the edge of a potential downturn.

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According to Elliott Wave Theory, the pivot point at $57,600 was the last line of defense for the bullish trend.

Instead of succumbing to the bears, Bitcoin’s price rebounded, confirming the continuation of the bullish trend. This bounce marked a turning point in the market, shifting the sentiment from bearish to bullish and paving the way for further upward movement.

A drop below this level would have invalidated the possibility of a five-wave uptrend, plummeting the price. However, with the price now firmly above this level, the stage is set for a potential breakout to new highs.

On Aug. 22. Bitcoin reached a high of $61,800, breaking out above its descending channel. If a five-wave pattern develops from the Aug. 5 low, Bitcoin could surge toward $66,000.

Should the momentum continue beyond this point, there is potential for Bitcoin to even reach $70,000 next. However, if resistance is encountered, the price could drop to $54,600 before deciding to move towards $70,000.

Bearish Scenario 

Alternatively, since Bitcoin still hasn’t achieved a higher high since Aug. 8, there is still a chance its previous recovery from Aug. 5 was a corrective ABC. In this count, the rise from Aug. 16 is corrective and will end shortly, followed by a higher momentum move to the downside. 

The RSI shows a pattern of lower highs, reflecting weakening momentum, which could be a bearish signal. Meanwhile, the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover, indicating potential downside.

If the bearish scenario plays out, Bitcoin could continue its downward movement, with the following significant support level around $43,425. A deeper correction could push Bitcoin toward the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level around $38,149, marking a significant decline from current levels.

The bearish outlook suggests that unless Bitcoin  breaks out of this descending channel and reverses the current trend, it could continue to face selling pressure. The formation of the lower lows and the potential completion of the corrective wave (C) indicate that Bitcoin may be headed toward a more extended downside move.

This scenario hinges on Bitcoin failing to sustain upward momentum and breaking below critical support levels, leading to further bearish continuation.