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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Drops 38% Over the Weekend but Begins Recovery

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Strong bearish impulse below $320
  • RSI shows potential for short-term relief
  • Critical support near $241.86 (2.618 Fib)

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has recently experienced a significant bearish momentum, reflecting both impulsive and corrective wave structures across different timeframes.

The charts provided, covering the daily and 1-hour timeframes, offer a comprehensive view of BCH’s current price dynamics under Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci retracement levels, and RSI indicators.

BCH Price Analysis

BCH has been in a pronounced downtrend on the daily timeframe, marked by a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern.

Completing corrective wave (iv) near $444 coincided with rejection from descending trendline resistance, reinforcing bearish pressure.

BCH price analysis
BCHUSD | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

Following this, BCH broke down sharply, penetrating the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $271, and has lost nearly 39% of its value since Friday.

Currently, it is hovering around $313 as it started recovering, but we can see further decline despite the wick on the daily chart, signaling support has been found. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a brief relief rally. However, the prevailing momentum remains bearish, with strong resistance around $388.29 (0.786 Fib retracement) and $397.53 (0.5 Fib retracement from the larger wave structure). This suggests any bullish attempts may face significant hurdles unless a decisive breakout occurs.

BCH Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, BCH is in the midst of an impulsive decline, specifically within wave (iii) of a larger downward sequence.

The rapid descent has already breached key Fibonacci extension levels, notably the 1.618 at $321.79, which is now being tested for resistance. 

BCH price prediction
BCHUSD | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

A minor corrective rally for wave (iv) is anticipated, potentially targeting $349.44 (1.272 Fib retracement) before resuming the downtrend. The final leg, wave (v), is projected to extend towards $241.86 (2.618 Fib extension), aligning with the broader bearish trend.

If selling pressure intensifies, BCH could decline to $211.32 (wave v target) or even $178.23 (3.414 Fib extension). Short-term bounces are likely but should be viewed within a dominant bearish structure.

On the other hand, today’s spike to $271 could have completed its long-lasting correction as the Y wave from the WXY since April had a high of $720. In that case, we can see the start of a new bull phase as the price of BCH enters its demand zone.

However, strong confirmations will be needed as the price needs to establish strong support before a larger recovery again brings it above the $400 horizontal zone.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $349.44 (1.272 Fibonacci retracement)
  • Key Support: $291.25 (2.0 Fibonacci extension)
  • Critical Support: $241.86 (2.618 Fibonacci extension)
  • Short-Term Target for Wave (v): $211.32 if the downtrend persists
  • Invalidation Zone: Above $388.29, signaling a potential trend reversal
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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