Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Breakdown Could Trigger 20% Price Decline

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has surged 125% since April, but the rally may not be as strong as it looks.

The price is trapped inside a rising parallel channel, showing signs of exhaustion.

Now, BCH faces a critical decision: hold support or risk a sharp breakdown.

Bearish Bitcoin Cash Analysis

The BCH price has increased by 125% since the start of April, creating numerous higher lows, a sign of a bullish trend.

However, the outlook is not as rosy as it seems at first glance, as the BCH price is on the precipice of a breakdown.

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The entire Bitcoin Cash price increase is contained within an ascending parallel channel and is extremely choppy.

The overlap between the highs and lows is a sign of a corrective movement, which means BCH could break down from the channel.

Moreover, the Bitcoin Cash price trades at the channel’s support trend line today, meaning another minor decline will trigger a breakdown.

Momentum indicators suggest BCH will break down. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences (orange).

The divergences triggered a decline and have now fallen below their bearish thresholds.

So, the Bitcoin Cash prediction is bearish, and a breakdown from the channel is the most likely future outlook.

If that happens, the BCH price could fall to the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci support level at $397-$440.

Long-Term BCH Prediction

Even though the short-term outlook predicts a BCH breakdown, the long-term analysis gives a bullish prediction.

The count shows that Bitcoin Cash has traded inside a long-term symmetrical triangle since 2018, completing an A-B-C-D-E (correction).

Depending on the slope of the resistance, the price of BCH may have already broken out from the trend line and is currently validating it as support.

If the count is accurate, Bitcoin Cash started a new upward movement in April, which will take it at least $1,500 and possibly to a new all-time high.

Considering the bullish count, the BCH increase can be considered a five-wave diagonal movement rather than a corrective structure.

Even in this case, the BCH price will break down from the channel, so the bearish short-term prediction seems inevitable.

However, a significant price increase will follow afterward, finally taking the Bitcoin Cash price above $1,000.

BCH Breakdown Awaits

While short-term signals point to a bearish breakdown, the long-term outlook for BCH remains bullish.

A correction toward $397–$440 may be unavoidable, but it could set the stage for a powerful rebound.

Ultimately, Bitcoin Cash still has the potential to rally past $1,000 and even target $1,500 this year.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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