Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rally hit a peak of $62,760 last Thursday, but the momentum soon faltered. By Friday, the reigning crypto king began to show signs of weakness, eventually dipping to a low of $57,710, marking an 8% decline.
While concerns loom as Bitcoin stabilizes near the $58,000 mark, on-chain evidence points to a more optimistic, contrarian outlook.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted that on-chain data continues to signal a bullish market for Bitcoin despite recent fluctuations. On X , he shared that CryptoQuant’s market cycle indicator, which briefly dipped into bear territory, has now shifted back to a bullish phase.
The Bull/Bear market cycle indicator is a momentum metric that tracks Bitcoin’s market cycles by comparing the Profit & Loss (P&L) Index to its 365-day moving average. When the indicator is above 0, it signals a bull market, typically when Bitcoin sees most of its gains. If the indicator falls below 0 and its moving average, it signals a bear market, indicating a potential decline in prices.
Ju noted that the indicator briefly gave bearish signals for just four days before Bitcoin’s cycle re-entered its bullish zone on Aug. 8. Despite the weekend’s dip, Bitcoin remains in this bullish zone, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
Additionally, Ju pointed to a substantial accumulation of Bitcoin, with 404,448 BTC moving to permanent holder addresses in the past 30 days.
He predicts that within a year, major entities—ranging from traditional finance institutions to companies and governments—will announce their Bitcoin acquisitions, leaving retail investors who hesitated due to macroeconomic concerns regretting their decision.
Since hitting a low of $53,746 on July 5, Bitcoin has rebounded by nearly 31%, reaching a peak of $69,900 on July 29. This sharp recovery hints at a potential bullish trend. However, the rally was halted by the resistance of a descending channel in place since March 13, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high.
Soon after, Bitcoin experienced a downturn, dropping to a low of $49,600 on August 5 before recovering slightly to close the day at $54,000—still above the descending support. This rebound indicates buyers are stepping in, resulting in a 26.8% recovery to nearly $63,000.
Bitcoin’s price remains within the descending channel, a corrective structure before further gains. As it declined on Friday, we will soon receive a confirmation that we are either maintaining a higher low or making a new one.
This would indicate that the descending channel is not merely a correction but the start of a more prolonged downward trend.
With Bitcoin on an upward trajectory, the next few days will be crucial. The outlook may improve if today’s 16% recovery leads to a bullish reversal. However, if Bitcoin reencounters strong resistance, it could soon decline.