Berachain (BERA) has shown a significant shift in momentum after a prolonged downtrend, as indicated by its Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci retracement levels.
The charts suggest a potential reversal following the completion of a five-wave decline.
However, the market remains at a critical juncture where confirmation of trend direction is necessary.
The one-hour chart provides a broader view of BERA’s downtrend, highlighting a clear five-wave Elliott Wave pattern that ended near the $4.70 level on Feb 1.
The decline formed a descending channel, a structure often associated with bullish reversals.
Completing Wave (v) at the channel’s lower boundary suggests that bearish momentum is exhausting.
Following the bottoming structure, BERA initiated a corrective move upward, briefly breaking above the descending channel resistance.
The retracement levels from this bounce are critical in assessing whether this is a true reversal or a temporary relief rally.
The price found resistance near $5.27, with a stronger barrier at $5.40, which aligns with descending resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold conditions, currently stabilizing near neutral levels.
However, momentum must sustain above the 50 level on RSI for a confirmed trend reversal. If BERA reclaims the 0.618 Fibonacci level, it could signal the start of a larger corrective wave or a new bullish impulse.
Conversely, failure to hold the $5.00 region could trigger another selloff toward previous lows.
The 15-minute chart provides a more detailed perspective on the short-term trajectory. Following the initial breakout attempt, BERA appears amidst an ABC corrective wave.
The correction has already reached the 0.618 retracement level at $5.00, making this a pivotal point for determining the next move.
If the price holds above $5.00 and completes the correction, the next impulsive wave could extend towards the $5.42 level (1.0 Fibonacci extension) and potentially higher to $5.83 (1.618 extension).
This would mark a full recovery from the recent downtrend and signal a shift in market structure.
However, a deeper correction could ensue if the price fails to maintain support at $5.00, targeting the $4.88 (0.786 retracement) or even the $4.74 level (1.0 Fibonacci retracement).
The RSI indicates weakening bullish momentum, suggesting a further decline is possible before a new rally emerges.
For the bullish scenario to remain valid, BERA must reclaim the $5.26 resistance zone and hold above $5.00.
A breakout above the descending trendline would further confirm the start of a new uptrend.