Arbitrum price faces bearish pressure as open interest plunges | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Share
Key Takeaways
ETH’s inability to reclaim $4,500 resistance leaves Arbitrum vulnerable to downside pressure.
ARB’s derivatives OI has fallen from $500M to $206M, signaling fading trader confidence.
Negative MACD crossover and EMA breakdowns point to potential declines toward $0.39.
Ethereum’s (ETH) inability to reclaim $4,500 resistance has cryptos under its ecosystem exposed. For Arbitrum’s price, ETH’s recent consolidation could translate into rising downside risk.
Over the past 30 days, ARB’s price has increased by 30%, as Ethereum’s price hit a new all-time high.
However, for some days, ETH has struggled with other layer-2 tokens following a similar direction. Here is what could be next for the cryptocurrency.
Why Arbitrum Needs ETH
At press time, ARB trades at $0.49. The technical outlook shows that the token strongly correlates with Ethereum (ETH).
On the daily chart, Ethereum’s price jumped 174%, while an 82% gain followed ARB’s. This correlation suggests that over a 90-day window, ARB tends to mirror ETH’s performance.
Get These Top Crypto Casino Offers Now!
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
However, with Ethereum struggling to reclaim the $4,500 psychological resistance, ARB’s price also faces the risk of a further downturn if ETH weakens.
ARB Price Action Against ETH | Credit: TradingView
Roadblock Threatens Upside
Beyond its correlation with ETH, other indicators show that Arbitrum’s price sits at a critical juncture. One key metric is Open Interest (OI).
Arbitrum’s OI was on track to touch $500 million two weeks ago, reflecting heavy speculative activity and trader confidence. Fast forward to today, and that figure has plunged to $206 million.
This drop signals that capital is leaving the derivatives market for ARB.
Lower OI usually points to waning interest from leveraged traders, which can drain momentum from rallies and recoveries. If the trend continues, ARB’s price could remain under pressure, consolidating or sliding lower.
Conversely, if OI stabilizes and begins to climb again, it could suggest renewed conviction in ARB’s upside, giving the token the liquidity needed to mount a rebound.
However, as it stands, it is likely to be the former as ARB’s price risks dropping below the underlying $0.45 support.
ARB Price Prediction: Bearish
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart presents a bearish setup for ARB. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped into negative territory, weakening momentum.
Adding to this pressure, the 12 EMA (blue) has crossed below the 26 EMA (orange), forming a bearish crossover that points to further downside ahead.
If this setup holds, Arbitrum’s price risks sliding to $0.39 at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The decline could deepen in a highly bearish scenario, pushing ARB as low as $0.33.
However, a shift in demand could change the narrative. If buyers step in—or if Ethereum manages to reclaim the $4,500 level, Arbitrum’s price may ride the momentum higher. In that case, ARB could rally toward $0.62.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
