Aptos (APT) Faces 11.3M Token Unlock as Price Starts Recovery
Analyzing the Aptos Unlock | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Key Takeaways
- More than 11 million Aptos (APT) tokens will unlock on Sept. 11.
- The APT price has bounced at the bottom of its long-term range.
- Will the token unlock affect the APT price, causing it to break down?
Aptos (APT) has fallen over 67% since its yearly high of 19.37 on March 26. The decrease was initially sharp but became more gradual starting in May. After bouncing in August, the price of APT created a higher low this week.
However, an upcoming token unlock could cause downward pressure on the price. Can APT weather this storm and continue its momentum toward resistance?
Explaining the Aptos Unlock
11.31 million APT tokens will unlock on Sept. 12. This is part of a monthly linear unlock that will continue until September 2026 and decline to 4.54 million until October 2032, when the entire supply will vest.
The biggest portion of this unloc k will go to the core contributors and the community.
Token unlocks boost the asset’s circulating supply. This can put downward pressure on its price. However, our previous research shows that unlocks less than 3% of the circulating supply tend to have little to no effect on the asset’s price.
The Aptos token unlock is 2.4% of the circulating supply, so if the previous analysis holds, it will not affect the price, which bounced at a critical horizontal support area in August.
Long-Term Trading Range
The weekly chart shows that APT has declined since its all-time high of $20.40 in January 2023. Then, it created a lower high in March 2024 before resuming its decline. During this period, most of the movement has been confined within the $5-$10 range. The two failed upward movements create the only two deviations above this range.
In August, the price of APT fell to a low of $4.32, briefly declining below the $5 horizontal support area. However, it bounced afterward (white icon), creating a bullish candlestick for the week. Also, since the bottom was below that of October 2023, it is possible it completed an A-B-C correction that started with the all-time high.
Technical indicators gradually support this possibility. The MACD has nearly made a bullish cross (black circle) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 50. If the MACD completes its cross and the RSI moves above 50, they will confirm the trend reversal from the technical indicator perspective. The price of APT will have to close above $10 to confirm this scenario.
In any case, it seems that an upward movement toward the $10 resistance area is likely.
Aptos Reversal Incoming?
The upcoming token unlock is small relative to the circulating supply to have a notable effect on the price. APT shows several bullish signs that could lead to a long-term reversal, which would be confirmed with an increase above $10.
Aptos Price Struggles to Stay Above $8 But APT Market Cap Up 127% in Three Months
