Aptos price has reclaimed $10, but a token unlock event scheduled for Jan. 11 threatens its gains.
Despite holding support around $8.70, analysis shows that APT may struggle to continue the upswing.
The daily chart shows a bearish flag, indicating that Aptos price is likely to undergo a correction.
APT, the native token of layer-1 blockchain Aptos, has rallied to $10. This rise comes as the next Aptos token unlock approaches.
Historically, APT tends to rise in anticipation of such events, but the lead-up is often marked by significant volatility, typically resulting in a price decline.
These tokens, when eventually released, represent 2.02% of the total Aptos circulating supply.
For those unfamiliar, token unlocks involve releasing previously restricted tokens into circulation. Token unlocks often lead to downward pressure on price, especially in cases where supply outweighs demand.
Therefore, as Saturday’s event approaches, APT’s price is likely to experience a high level of volatility. If buying pressure around the asset also drops, the value risks dropping below $10.
Aptos Token Unlock | Credit: Tokenomist
APT Flashes Strong Support, but Risks Pullback
From a technical perspective, APT’s price was able to climb past $10 due to support at $8.46 and $8.70. According to the daily chart, the last time the token had such strong support was around Nov. 6, 2024.
During that period, the price skyrocketed to $13.75 before it experienced a pullback. In climbing to that value, APT successfully breached the supply zone of around $11.
While history often repeats itself, a thorough analysis of the token shows that this might not be the case.
APT/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
APT Price Prediction: Bear Flag Appears
One reason for this assertion can be linked to the formation of a bearish flag on the daily chart. A bear flag appears when a brief consolidation phase interrupts a sharp decline.
The pattern begins with an almost vertical panic-driven price drop, forming the flagpole. This indicates that sellers have overpowered buyers. Later, a flag-shaped structure defined by two parallel trendlines follows, indicating a temporary bounce.
For APT, the bearish pattern, alongside the upcoming token unlock, reinforces the thesis that the recent uptrend might fail to last.
As of this writing, APT’s price is on the verge of rising above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. However, the crucial resistance level is at $11.58, around the 0.618 Fibonacci.
With a significant supply shock coming, the token is unlikely to rise above this region. Instead, APT’s price might experience a drawdown to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $7.81.
APT/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
On the flip side, if buying pressure outpaces selling pressure as the token unlock nears, the forecasted correction might not happen. Instead, APT could rise above the $11.58 overhead and hit $13.23.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
