Aptos (APT) Breaks $10 Barrier Ahead of $116M Token Unlock—Major Correction Looms

• Aptos price has reclaimed $10, but a token unlock event scheduled for Jan. 11 threatens its gains.
• Despite holding support around $8.70, analysis shows that APT may struggle to continue the upswing.
• The daily chart shows a bearish flag, indicating that Aptos price is likely to undergo a correction.

APT, the native token of layer-1 blockchain Aptos, has rallied to $10. This rise comes as the next Aptos token unlock approaches.

Historically, APT tends to rise in anticipation of such events, but the lead-up is often marked by significant volatility, typically resulting in a price decline.

Here’s what could lie ahead for Aptos’ price.

Aptos to Release 11. 31 Million Tokens

The next Aptos token unlock is scheduled to take place on Saturday, Jan. 11.

According to Tokenomist (formerly Token Unlocks), the project will unlock 11.31 million tokens  valued at $116.60 million.

These tokens, when eventually released, represent 2.02% of the total Aptos circulating supply.

For those unfamiliar, token unlocks involve releasing previously restricted tokens into circulation. Token unlocks often lead to downward pressure on price, especially in cases where supply outweighs demand.

Therefore, as Saturday’s event approaches, APT’s price is likely to experience a high level of volatility. If buying pressure around the asset also drops, the value risks dropping below $10.

APT Flashes Strong Support, but Risks Pullback

From a technical perspective, APT’s price was able to climb past $10 due to support at $8.46 and $8.70. According to the daily chart, the last time the token had such strong support was around Nov. 6, 2024.

During that period, the price skyrocketed to $13.75 before it experienced a pullback. In climbing to that value, APT successfully breached the supply zone of around $11.

While history often repeats itself, a thorough analysis of the token shows that this might not be the case.

APT Price Prediction: Bear Flag Appears

One reason for this assertion can be linked to the formation of a bearish flag on the daily chart. A bear flag appears when a brief consolidation phase interrupts a sharp decline.

The pattern begins with an almost vertical panic-driven price drop, forming the flagpole. This indicates that sellers have overpowered buyers. Later, a flag-shaped structure defined by two parallel trendlines follows, indicating a temporary bounce.

For APT, the bearish pattern, alongside the upcoming token unlock, reinforces the thesis that the recent uptrend might fail to last.

As of this writing, APT’s price is on the verge of rising above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. However, the crucial resistance level is at $11.58, around the 0.618 Fibonacci.

With a significant supply shock coming, the token is unlikely to rise above this region. Instead, APT’s price might experience a drawdown to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $7.81.

On the flip side, if buying pressure outpaces selling pressure as the token unlock nears, the forecasted correction might not happen. Instead, APT could rise above the $11.58 overhead and hit $13.23.