April is The Peak Month for Crypto Profits – What’s in Store for 2024?

Key Takeaways

• April has historically been the best month for crypto profits.
• There was a significant correction in the market on April 1.
• Can a turnaround start in April, maintaining the historical narrative?

The crypto market has posted a bearish close in April only once, in 2022. Historically, April has been the best month for crypto profits.

However, a significant decrease on April 1, 2024 caused investors to worry if this trend will break in 2024. Can a turnaround ensue, or will April 2024 prove to be an outlier?

Historical Monthly Returns

Historically, the crypto market has increased in seven months throughout the year. April has been the month providing the best returns at 25.22%, followed by November at 24.63% and February at 22.55%. 

Conversely, the worst performing months are September at -6.91%, May at -3.58% and August at -1.67%. Despite this historical trend, April started on an extremely bearish note with a decrease of nearly 6%. 

Will April 2024 Buck the Trend?

A look at the Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTALCAP) since 2017 shows that it has increased in April each year with the exception of 2022, when TOTALCAP fell by 17% (red icon). Conversely, the highest increase of 37% was recorded in 2017 (green icon). 

In the daily time frame, the movement since the March 14 high resembles an A-B-C corrective structure. If so, TOTALCAP is in the C wave, which can end at $2.12 trillion, giving waves A and C a 1:1 ratio. 

This bearish outlook is supported by the RSI and MACD, which are crossing into bearish thresholds (red circles).

Conversely, a more bullish outlook would be an A-B-C-D-E (white) correction inside a symmetrical triangle. If that happens, TOTALCAP will soon reach its local bottom. Then, it will continue consolidating inside the triangle before an eventual breakout.

If the more bearish correction transpires, TOTALCAP will likely spend the rest of April attempting to return to its opening price of $2.61 trillion. 

On the other hand, if the correction follows a triangle, the local low will arrive soon, and TOTALCAP will consolidate before an eventual breakout, leading to a bullish monthly close.

April Returns Could Go Either Way

Despite the significant price decrease on April 1, it is not certain that TOTALCAP will close bearishly in April. Rather, the shape of the corrective structure will determine if the low for the month will be reached soon, or if another significant drop is in store. In both cases, the second half of April is likely to be bullish.